TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 12, 6:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Positive" if total Ethereum ETF flows on Friday, June 12, 2026 are greater than 0, and to "Negative" if they are less than 0. If flows are exactly 0, the market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source is Farside Investors, specifically the ETF Flow tab available at https://farside.co.uk/eth/ in the "Total" column for the date specified in the title. The total flows will be considered finalized for that day once flows for all ETF providers have been published. If data for any ETF provider remains unpublished by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the date specified in the title, the market will resolve based on all available data published up to that time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or fails to publish any data by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the specified date, the market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve to "Positive" if total Ethereum ETF flows on Friday, June 12, 2026 are greater than 0, and to "Negative" if they are less than 0. If flows are exactly 0, the market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source is Farside Investors, specifically the ETF Flow tab available at https://farside.co.uk/eth/ in the "Total" column for the date specified in the title. The total flows will be considered finalized for that day once flows for all ETF providers have been published. If data for any ETF provider remains unpublished by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the date specified in the title, the market will resolve based on all available data published up to that time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or fails to publish any data by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the specified date, the market will resolve 50-50.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect traders' collective expectations about Ethereum ETF flows on June 12, which may diverge from spot price forecasts or analyst consensus. While spot markets price Ethereum's immediate value, prediction markets isolate sentiment specifically about ETF inflow or outflow direction on that date. Comparing the implied probability from Polymarket to traditional analyst surveys or institutional flow predictions can reveal whether traders are more or less bullish on ETF demand than the broader market consensus.
On Polymarket, Ethereum ETF Flows on June 12 is priced through an automated market maker that updates odds continuously as traders buy and sell outcome shares. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability reflects the ratio of capital allocated to each outcome, with prices moving in real time based on order flow and market depth. Traders can enter or exit positions at any time before Jun 12, 2026, with the market price serving as the live consensus forecast for whether ETF flows will be positive or negative on that date.
The market resolves on Jun 12, 2026, after the close of trading on June 12. The outcome is determined by official data on Ethereum ETF inflows or outflows reported for that specific date. Resolution hinges on whether net flows are positive, negative, or meet other predefined thresholds established at market creation. Once the resolution criteria are met and verified, the market settles and winning positions are credited accordingly.
Key catalysts include major cryptocurrency price movements, regulatory announcements affecting Ethereum or ETF approvals, macroeconomic data releases, and institutional investment decisions. Positive signals such as favorable SEC guidance or strong Ethereum network upgrades could drive inflow expectations higher, while negative news like regulatory crackdowns or market downturns could shift sentiment toward outflows. Additionally, broader crypto market volatility, Bitcoin price action, and competing asset class performance may influence trader positioning ahead of June 12.