TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 18, 3:18 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Positive" if total Ethereum ETF flows on Monday, August 17, 2026 are greater than 0, and to "Negative" if they are less than 0. If flows are exactly 0, the market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source is Farside Investors, specifically the ETF Flow tab available at https://farside.co.uk/eth/ in the "Total" column for the date specified in the title. The total flows will be considered finalized for that day once flows for all ETF providers have been published. If data for any ETF provider remains unpublished by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the date specified in the title, the market will resolve based on all available data published up to that time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or fails to publish any data by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the specified date, the market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve to "Positive" if total Ethereum ETF flows on Monday, August 17, 2026 are greater than 0, and to "Negative" if they are less than 0. If flows are exactly 0, the market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source is Farside Investors, specifically the ETF Flow tab available at https://farside.co.uk/eth/ in the "Total" column for the date specified in the title. The total flows will be considered finalized for that day once flows for all ETF providers have been published. If data for any ETF provider remains unpublished by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the date specified in the title, the market will resolve based on all available data published up to that time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or fails to publish any data by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the specified date, the market will resolve 50-50.
Compared to traditional spot price forecasts, this market offers a probabilistic take on Ethereum ETF flows. While analysts might focus on price targets, this market aggregates trader sentiment into a percentage chance of specified flow outcomes. The current implied probability on Polymarket reflects a collective view that can diverge from, or reinforce, conventional spot market expectations based on recent momentum and news catalysts.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes. The displayed probability adjusts dynamically based on order imbalance, open interest, and recent trading volume. As a result, prices on Polymarket capture the real-time consensus of its user base, with liquidity often concentrating around the most likely outcomes.
This market resolves around Aug 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will watch regulatory announcements, fund disclosures, and on-chain flow data to gauge actual Ethereum ETF inflows against the market’s defined thresholds. The final settlement will reflect whether reported flows meet the criteria for each possible outcome.
Key signals include U.S. SEC decisions, commentary from major asset managers, weekly ETF flow reports, and broader macroeconomic data affecting crypto demand. Any surprise announcements — positive or negative — about Ethereum ETF approvals or inflows could cause rapid shifts in this market’s odds. Additionally, sharp moves in Ethereum’s spot price or related legislative developments may also influence trader sentiment leading up to Aug 17, 2026.