TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 4, 12:14 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Prediction market odds offer a forward-looking view that often diverges from current spot prices. In this market, traders are pricing in anticipated moves and volatility, so the odds may appear more bullish or bearish than today’s actual trading price. Comparing the two reveals market sentiment and potential direction ahead of Sep 4, 2026.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders collectively set the odds through their bets, which determine the current implied probability. The platform’s pricing mechanism adjusts in real time based on new trades, reflecting shifts in market sentiment. As trading volume grows, the odds can move significantly, especially around major crypto events or macroeconomic announcements that influence investor behavior.
This market resolves around Sep 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will see the result automatically reflected on the platform once the data is beyond doubt, settling all open positions according to the final price point.
Several signals could shift this market before Sep 4, 2026. Major Ethereum upgrades, regulatory announcements, or broad crypto market movements may influence trader sentiment. Additionally, macroeconomic factors like interest rate decisions or geopolitical tensions often ripple through digital asset prices, affecting odds. Whales placing large bets on Polymarket can also cause rapid changes in the implied probability as the market adjusts to new information.