TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Ethereum above ___ on April 25?
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two platforms measure Ethereum price at different times (12:00 PM ET vs. 5:00 PM EDT, 5-hour gap), using different data sources (Binance spot close vs. CF Benchmarks ERTI composite index), and different aggregation methods (single candle vs. 60-second average). This creates independent resolution paths for nominally identical price thresholds.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets despite overlapping thresholds. Polymarket's noon Binance close is a point-in-time snapshot; Kalshi's 5 PM ERTI average reflects intraday volatility and index composition. A threshold can resolve YES on Polymarket at noon and NO on Kalshi at 5 PM if Ethereum declines during the afternoon, or vice versa. Verify your hedge is directional, not mechanical.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Measures Ethereum price at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on April 25 using the Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle close price. Resolution is binary: close price must be strictly higher than the stated threshold. Source: Binance published candle data at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with 1m candles selected.
- Kalshi: Measures Ethereum price at 5:00 PM EDT on April 25, 2026 using the simple average of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) over the 60 seconds preceding 5 PM. Resolution is binary: average must be strictly above the stated threshold. Source: CF Benchmarks ERTI, a composite index distinct from any single exchange.
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