TOTAL VOLUME:

$92.2b

24H VOL:

$284,628,848

24H TRANSACTIONS:

878,906,579

OPEN INTEREST:

$2,079,118,776

777,374

Markets across

13,971

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

887

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

46%

VS.

Kalshi:

54%

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Ethereum above ___ on April 25?
Crypto
polymarket
kalshi

Ethereum above ___ on April 25? Odds & Prediction Markets

Volume:
$917,855
PredictionHero
2,200 100%
polymarket
Ethereum price at Apr 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT? 100%
kalshi
2,300 100%
polymarket
Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Jul 2…6080100

Closed: Apr 25, 12:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

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Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two platforms measure Ethereum price at different times (12:00 PM ET vs. 5:00 PM EDT, 5-hour gap), using different data sources (Binance spot close vs. CF Benchmarks ERTI composite index), and different aggregation methods (single candle vs. 60-second average). This creates independent resolution paths for nominally identical price thresholds.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets despite overlapping thresholds. Polymarket's noon Binance close is a point-in-time snapshot; Kalshi's 5 PM ERTI average reflects intraday volatility and index composition. A threshold can resolve YES on Polymarket at noon and NO on Kalshi at 5 PM if Ethereum declines during the afternoon, or vice versa. Verify your hedge is directional, not mechanical.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Measures Ethereum price at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on April 25 using the Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle close price. Resolution is binary: close price must be strictly higher than the stated threshold. Source: Binance published candle data at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with 1m candles selected.
  • Kalshi: Measures Ethereum price at 5:00 PM EDT on April 25, 2026 using the simple average of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) over the 60 seconds preceding 5 PM. Resolution is binary: average must be strictly above the stated threshold. Source: CF Benchmarks ERTI, a composite index distinct from any single exchange.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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