TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 25, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This market on Kalshi predicts whether the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT on September 25, 2026 will be between 1820-1859.99. Currently, the leading outcome – that the price *will* be in that range – has a 94.0% probability. The market resolves based on data from CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI). Keep a close watch on the price of Ethereum leading up to September 25, 2026, as the final sixty seconds before 5 PM EDT will determine the outcome of this market.
The event resolves based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on September 25, 2026. If this average falls within any of the defined price brackets—from $1,539.99 or below up to $3,460 or above—the corresponding market resolves to Yes. All markets share identical secondary rules, emphasizing that the official price is derived exclusively from CF Benchmarks' ERTI, with the final value determined by averaging 60 readings taken in the last minute before expiration. Sources like Google or Coinbase are referenced only for informational purposes and do not affect the outcome.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a range of expectations for the ETH price on the resolution date. These expectations are often compared to those found in traditional financial polls or analyst forecasts. However, unlike polls which rely on stated opinions, this market aggregates the beliefs of individuals who have ‘skin in the game’ – meaning they are financially incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. This can lead to a different signal than traditional forecasting methods, as traders are directly expressing their convictions with capital. The market’s wisdom of the crowd may or may not align with broader sentiment.
This market resolves around Sep 25, 2026, with the outcome determined by the price of Ethereum as reported by a credible public source at 5pm EDT on September 25, 2026. The specific price will be verified against credible public reporting to determine which price range contract will pay out. Traders will be able to see the final settlement price and the winning contract once the event is confirmed. The market's resolution will reflect the actual ETH price at the specified time, providing a clear and objective outcome.
Numerous signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major developments in Ethereum’s technology, such as successful upgrades or unforeseen bugs, could shift expectations. Regulatory announcements concerning cryptocurrency, particularly Ethereum, from governments worldwide could also cause substantial price movements. Broader macroeconomic factors, like changes in interest rates or inflation, can influence investor sentiment towards risk assets like ETH. Finally, significant adoption of Ethereum by institutions or mainstream users could drive up demand and price, while negative news or security breaches could have the opposite effect.