TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 18, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks Ethereum's price at a specific future moment, using a standardized benchmark index to determine the outcome. The resolution depends on where the price falls within predefined ranges at the exact timestamp.
The event resolves based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) immediately before 5 PM EDT on September 18, 2026. If this average falls within any of the specified price ranges—from $1,489.99 or below up to $3,410 or above—the corresponding market resolves to Yes. All markets share the same resolution mechanism: the official price is derived from averaging 60 ERTI readings collected in the final minute before expiration. Participants should note that exchange-specific prices (e.g., Google, Coinbase) may differ, and the CF Benchmarks index is the sole source of truth for resolution.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast for the ETH price on September 18, 2026, at 5pm EDT. These odds represent what traders believe is the probability of ETH falling within various price ranges. This differs from traditional spot price expectations, which are often based on analyst forecasts or current market trends. While spot price expectations can be influenced by news and speculation, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, offering a unique perspective on potential future price movements. It's a way to gauge informed speculation about ETH’s value.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. Traders are essentially betting on whether ETH will be above or below certain price thresholds at the specified date and time. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the current probability assigned to it by the market participants. Higher volume in a particular range indicates greater confidence in that outcome, driving the price up or down accordingly. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of market sentiment.
This market resolves around Sep 18, 2026, with the outcome determined by the ETH price at 5pm EDT on September 18, 2026. The final price will be verified against credible public reporting from established cryptocurrency exchanges. The market will settle to 100% for the price range that ETH falls within at the specified time. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process, reflecting the actual market conditions at the time of settlement. Traders will then receive payouts based on their positions in the market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market between now and September 18, 2026. Major developments in Ethereum’s technology, such as successful upgrades or unforeseen bugs, could impact its price. Regulatory changes regarding cryptocurrencies, particularly in key jurisdictions, are also likely to move the market. Broader macroeconomic trends, like inflation rates and interest rate decisions, could affect investor sentiment towards risk assets like ETH. Unexpected events, such as major security breaches or shifts in institutional adoption, could also have a substantial impact on this market.