TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 29, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Ethereum's price will fall below $1,140 at 5pm EDT on May 29, 2026, based on the sixty-second average of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index. On Kalshi, the leading outcome carries a probability of 38.0%, while a second price range outcome stands at 26.0%. Resolution will be determined by the official ERTI benchmark snapshot taken immediately before 5pm EDT on May 29, 2026, making the exact timing of that index reading the critical settlement point.
Prediction market odds reflect trader consensus on future Ethereum price ranges, often diverging from current spot prices because they incorporate forward-looking expectations, volatility forecasts, and macroeconomic uncertainty. While spot prices show today's market value, the May 29, 2026 prediction market embeds beliefs about adoption trends, regulatory developments, and broader crypto market conditions over the next two years. Comparing market odds to analyst price targets and on-chain sentiment indicators can reveal whether traders are pricing in bullish or bearish scenarios relative to conventional forecasts.
The market resolves on May 29, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined by Ethereum's price at the specified time. Resolution occurs after the reference time passes and price data is confirmed. Traders holding positions in the correct price range receive payouts, while incorrect predictions expire worthless. The precise resolution mechanism ensures that only one outcome can settle true, eliminating ambiguity about which range bracket Ethereum occupied at the exact moment specified.
Major catalysts include Ethereum protocol upgrades, changes in staking economics, regulatory announcements affecting crypto markets, macroeconomic shifts in interest rates and risk appetite, and developments in competing blockchain platforms. Bitcoin price movements often correlate with Ethereum, so BTC momentum can influence ETH range expectations. Layer 2 adoption metrics, institutional inflows, and shifts in developer activity on the network may also reshape trader views on long-term Ethereum value. Geopolitical events and central bank policy decisions could trigger broader crypto market repricing affecting this outcome.