TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 28, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event divides Ethereum's price on June 28, 2026 at 5pm EDT into specific price ranges. Resolution uses CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index, with the final price determined by averaging 60 seconds of RTI data.
Resolution is based on the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) collected before 5 PM EDT on June 28, 2026. The market is divided into price ranges spanning from below $790 to $2,310 and above, with each range representing a distinct outcome. The official price is calculated by averaging all 60 RTI prices collected in the final minute before expiration. CF Benchmarks' RTI is the authoritative data source for this market.
Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader conviction about where ETH will settle, often diverging from current spot prices because they factor in volatility, funding costs, and longer-term sentiment. While spot exchanges show the price right now, this market embeds expectations about price movement over the coming weeks. Traders who believe Ethereum will move significantly higher or lower than today's level will bid up odds in their favored range. Comparing the leading outcome odds to analyst forecasts and on-chain metrics can reveal whether the crowd is pricing in a bullish, bearish, or neutral bias relative to consensus views.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell shares in each price range outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each range functions as a separate contract, and the sum of all winning-outcome probabilities should equal 100 percent. Prices move as supply and demand shift, with tighter spreads indicating higher confidence and wider spreads suggesting uncertainty. Participants can enter or exit positions at any time before settlement, and the platform matches buyers and sellers in real time to establish fair-value odds for each band.
This market resolves around Jun 28, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning range is determined by where Ethereum trades at the specified moment, and all shares in that outcome pay out in full. Traders holding positions in non-winning ranges receive nothing. The resolution process is automatic once the price data is finalized, ensuring all participants settle fairly and simultaneously.
Major catalysts for this market include regulatory announcements, macroeconomic shifts affecting risk appetite, Bitcoin price action, Ethereum network upgrades, and changes in staking or DeFi activity. Geopolitical events, central bank policy decisions, and large on-chain transactions can also trigger sharp repricing. Technical levels and options expiry dates may create clustering around certain price bands. Traders monitor social sentiment, derivatives funding rates, and exchange inflows to anticipate directional moves. Any surprise news about Ethereum's roadmap or competitive threats from other blockchains could shift odds significantly in the final days before settlement.