TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 20, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event determines which price range Ethereum will fall into on June 20, 2026 at 5pm EDT using CF Benchmarks' official Ethereum Real-Time Index. Traders select the specific $40 price band they believe will contain ETH's price at that time.
Resolution is determined by the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on June 20, 2026. Each outcome represents a distinct price range, and the market resolves Yes for the outcome whose range contains the calculated average. The official price source is CF Benchmarks' RTI, not alternative sources like Google or Coinbase. Sixty individual RTI prices are sampled in the final minute before expiration, and their arithmetic mean determines which range outcome resolves affirmatively. Ranges are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, covering all possible prices from below $890 to above $2,410.
Prediction market odds reflect what traders collectively believe will happen, often diverging from current spot prices or analyst forecasts. While the spot price represents what Ethereum trades for right now, this market embeds forward-looking expectations about volatility, adoption trends, and macroeconomic shifts over the coming months. Comparing the implied price ranges here to consensus analyst targets can reveal whether the market is pricing in more bullish or bearish scenarios than traditional financial forecasters expect.
On Kalshi, traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each price range outcome, with the share price reflecting the probability of that range occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more capital flowing into a particular range, the higher its price climbs, and vice versa. This continuous price discovery mechanism means odds update in real time as new information emerges and trader conviction shifts, allowing you to enter or exit positions at any time before the market closes.
This market resolves around Jun 20, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed once Ethereum's price at that moment is verifiable from credible public sources. The winning range is determined by where ETH trades during the specified settlement window. All positions in the correct range pay out in full, while positions in incorrect ranges expire worthless, making timing and price accuracy the sole factors in determining winners.
Major catalysts include regulatory announcements affecting cryptocurrency, shifts in macroeconomic policy or interest rates, technological upgrades to the Ethereum network, and broad sentiment swings in risk appetite. Institutional adoption news, competing blockchain developments, and changes in staking yields can also reshape trader expectations around Ethereum's valuation. Market-wide crypto volatility, geopolitical events, and updates to major DeFi protocols represent additional wildcards that could shift this market's odds significantly in either direction.