TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 10, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Ethereum's exchange rate against the dollar will be measured on June 10, 2026 at 5 PM EDT using a 60-second average price. This event divides the possible price range into specific price bands to identify which range the rate falls within.
Prediction market odds reflect trader consensus about where ETH will trade at resolution, often diverging from current spot prices due to time horizon and volatility assumptions. While spot markets price Ethereum in real time, this prediction market incorporates forward-looking expectations across an 18-month window. Comparing the implied price ranges on Kalshi to analyst forecasts and on-chain sentiment indicators can reveal whether the market is pricing in bullish adoption, regulatory headwinds, or macro uncertainty. Traders use this comparison to identify mispricings relative to their own conviction.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this event is structured as discrete price range outcomes, each with its own contract and odds. Traders buy or sell shares in specific ETH price brackets, and the platform's order book determines real-time pricing for each range. The top outcome currently reflects market consensus on the most likely price band. Kalshi's pricing mechanism aggregates all trader positions and order flow to establish the probability for each bracket, allowing you to compare relative conviction across different price scenarios for Ethereum at the June 2026 resolution date.
This market resolves at Jun 10, 2026, capturing Ethereum's price at exactly 5pm EDT on June 10, 2026. The outcome is determined by the official ETH/USD price at that specific moment. Traders holding shares in the correct price range at resolution receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The precise timing and price source ensure objective, verifiable settlement without ambiguity, allowing all participants to know the result immediately once the resolution timestamp passes.
Major catalysts for ETH price movement include Ethereum protocol upgrades, shifts in institutional adoption and staking participation, macroeconomic policy changes affecting risk assets, regulatory developments in key jurisdictions, and competing blockchain innovations. Bitcoin's trajectory often influences altcoin sentiment, while DeFi ecosystem growth and layer-2 scaling adoption can drive long-term ETH demand. Geopolitical events, central bank decisions, and tech sector earnings also ripple through crypto markets. Traders monitoring this market watch these signals to adjust their price range positions ahead of the June 2026 resolution date.