TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 28, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Ethereum's price will exceed $1,609.99 at 5 PM EDT on May 28, 2026, measured as a 60-second average on the CF Benchmarks Ethereum Real-Time Index. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 99.5%. The market resolves according to the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index before 5 PM EDT on the specified date. Watch the final hour of trading on May 28, 2026, as price action in the minutes leading up to 5 PM EDT will directly determine the settlement value.
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect traders' collective expectations for Ethereum's price at the specified time, often diverging from current spot prices due to time-decay, volatility premia, and funding costs. While spot markets price Ethereum in real time, prediction markets embed forward-looking sentiment about regulatory changes, adoption trends, and macroeconomic conditions over the next two years. Comparing the implied price from market odds to analyst forecasts and on-chain metrics can reveal whether traders are pricing in bullish or bearish scenarios relative to consensus views.
The market resolves on May 28, 2026, at which point the final Ethereum price at 5pm EDT on May 28, 2026 is determined and compared against the contract terms. Resolution occurs shortly after the specified time window closes, allowing traders to settle positions based on the confirmed price data. The outcome is locked in once the reference price is officially recorded, concluding the prediction event.
Major catalysts affecting Ethereum price over the next two years include regulatory developments in the US and EU, shifts in institutional adoption, Ethereum protocol upgrades and scaling solutions, macroeconomic conditions and interest-rate policy, and competitive dynamics with alternative layer-1 blockchains. Staking yield changes, DeFi ecosystem growth, and enterprise blockchain integration could also influence sentiment. Geopolitical events, central-bank digital-currency announcements, and shifts in crypto market structure may create volatility that traders monitor when positioning for the May 2026 outcome.