TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 23, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the Ethereum (ETH) price on June 23, 2026 at 5pm EDT. The price will be determined by averaging 60 seconds of real-time price data from CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index immediately before the expiration time.
Resolution is based on the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on June 23, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with the market resolving Yes to the outcome matching the final averaged price. Price thresholds range from $900 and above through $2,460 and above, incrementing by $40 at each level. The official price source is CF Benchmarks' Real-Time Index rather than other cryptocurrency data providers, ensuring consistency and accuracy in determining which outcome resolves affirmatively.
Prediction market odds reflect traders' collective expectations about where ETH will actually trade, which often diverges from today's spot price. While spot markets price current supply and demand, this market embeds forward-looking views on adoption, regulation, macroeconomic shifts, and technical developments over the next 18+ months. Traders betting on higher prices signal confidence in bullish catalysts; those favoring lower levels reflect caution or bearish thesis. The gap between current spot and the market's implied price target reveals how much upside or downside the crowd expects, making it a useful benchmark against analyst forecasts and on-chain sentiment indicators.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different ETH price ranges or outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each trade updates the mid-market price in real time, reflecting the latest consensus. Liquidity and trading volume of $137,119 over the past 24 hours determine how easily participants can enter or exit positions. The platform's pricing model ensures that as new information emerges—whether macro trends, regulatory news, or technical developments—the odds adjust dynamically to reflect fresh expectations about ETH's June 2026 value.
This market resolves around Jun 23, 2026, once the event occurs and the outcome is verifiable from credible public sources. The resolution hinges on where Ethereum's price settles at the specified time and date. Participants should monitor leading up to resolution to understand how real-world developments—regulatory announcements, technological upgrades, market volatility, and macroeconomic conditions—may shift expectations. The final outcome will be confirmed once independent price data becomes available, ensuring accuracy and fairness for all traders.
Major catalysts that could shift this market include Ethereum protocol upgrades, regulatory clarity or restrictions from major jurisdictions, macroeconomic policy shifts affecting risk appetite, and Bitcoin price movements. Institutional adoption announcements, changes in staking yields, and developments in competing layer-1 blockchains also influence sentiment. Geopolitical events, central bank decisions, and broader crypto market sentiment can trigger sharp repricing. Technical breakthroughs or security incidents would similarly move odds. Traders monitoring on-chain metrics, developer activity, and mainstream financial news will be best positioned to anticipate how this market evolves toward its June 2026 resolution date.