TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 9:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the outcome of the 2026 gubernatorial election in Espírito Santo, focusing on whether either of two specified candidates secures the victory. The resolution depends solely on the election results for these individuals.
Kalshi
The event determines its resolution based on the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election results for two specified candidates. If either Lorenzo Pazolini or Ricardo Ferraço wins the election, the event resolves positively. Both markets associated with these candidates are subject to accelerated resolution through a consensus of media calls, providing a mechanism for early closure if widespread and authoritative sources confirm the outcome before the official election certification.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While polls and expert opinions provide valuable insights, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, allowing traders to weigh various factors and express their beliefs financially. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It's common to see this market adjust rapidly to new developments, potentially offering an earlier signal of changing expectations than traditional sources. Comparing this market to polls and analyst forecasts can provide a more nuanced understanding of the race.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes in the Espírito Santo governor race. The price of each contract reflects the market's probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the event's likelihood. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for a contract that pays out if their predicted outcome wins the election, and is influenced by news, polling data, and overall market sentiment.
This market resolves around Jan 15, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle to 100% for the candidate officially declared the winner by the relevant electoral authorities. Any disputes or challenges to the official results will be considered in determining the final outcome, but the initial official declaration will be the primary factor. Traders holding contracts for the winning candidate will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for losing candidates will not.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Jan 15, 2027. Major developments include the release of new polling data, significant endorsements from influential political figures, and any unexpected controversies involving the candidates. Economic news impacting the state of Espírito Santo could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, campaign finance reports and debates could shift perceptions of each candidate's viability, leading to changes in the probabilities reflected in this market. Any major political upsets or unforeseen events could also trigger substantial price movements.
