TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
ERCOT West Hub average real-time power price (Week 45)
kalshi

What will the ERCOT West Hub price be?

Oct 30, 2026, 5:00 PM EST - Nov 6, 2026, 5:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$6,336
Volume 24h:
$3,488
29%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$2,297
56%

Above $25/MWh

 - Kalshi

Above $25/MWh - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 6, 2026

Time left: 03d:20h:46m

ERCOT West Hub average power price above $25/MWh, Week 45?

84%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 93¢ buys you 108 shares | Odds: 84% Total Payout: $108 | Net Profit: $8 Multiplier: 1.08x | ROI: 8% APY not meaningful 3 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $25/MWh

Trade
84%
Yes 93¢No 12¢
5¢
N/A
$2,017
0%
N/A
$2,011
3d 20h 46m
Active
kalshi

Above $35/MWh

Trade
79%
Yes 79¢No 43¢
22¢
N/A
$495
46%
N/A
$177
3d 20h 46m
Active
kalshi

Above $50/MWh

Trade
15%
1%
Yes 14¢No 96¢
10¢
N/A
$3,825
52%
N/A
$109
3d 20h 46m
Active
kalshi

Above $0/MWh

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 20h 46m
Active
kalshi

Above $15/MWh

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 20h 46m
Active
kalshi

Above $100/MWh

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 20h 46m
Active
kalshi

Above $200/MWh

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 20h 46m
Active
Total markets: 7

Description

The markets track the average real-time electricity prices at the ERCOT West Hub over a specific week in 2026. Prices are calculated from 15-minute intervals and averaged to determine if they exceed various thresholds. The outcomes reflect whether the average price for the week meets or exceeds each specified level.

Kalshi

All markets share identical secondary rules and calculation methodologies, focusing on the all-hours average real-time power price at the ERCOT West Hub for the week ending November 6, 2026. The relevant period runs from October 30, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT, to November 6, 2026, at 5:00 PM EST, inclusive of the start time but exclusive of the end time. Prices are sourced from ERCOT’s 15-minute real-time Settlement Point Prices for location NP6-905-CD, with intervals aligned to Central Time operating days and delivery conventions, accounting for daylight-saving changes. The calculation involves taking a simple average of all applicable 15-minute prices—including any negative prices—and rounding the result to two decimal places, with exact halves rounded away from zero. An average equal to the threshold resolves as 'No.' Trading concludes on November 6, 2026, at 4:59 PM EST, with the final delivery interval included in the calculation. Only the first published prices are used, though later corrections may apply if they occur before expiration and are accepted by the Exchange as material error fixes; unverified, estimated, indicative, and forecast prices are excluded. Missing data points are not filled in. If at least 95% of required intervals are available, the average is calculated from the available prices. If fewer than 95% of intervals are available, the market resolves only if the available data conclusively determines the outcome; otherwise, it settles at the Exchange-determined last fair price under comprehensive rules.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the ERCOT power price market tracks the current odds of the average real-time power price in the West Hub during Week 45 being above $35/MWh. You can view the price history of contracts, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $3,485. The total volume traded to date is $6,336. This allows traders to monitor market sentiment and activity related to this specific prediction.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the predictions made in this market to external analyst forecasts. However, generally, prediction markets can offer a unique perspective, aggregating the wisdom of the crowd and potentially identifying insights that may differ from traditional polls or expert opinions. If analysts are consistently predicting a different outcome than what is reflected in the odds here, it could signal disagreement about the factors influencing the ERCOT power price. It's important to consider a variety of sources when forming your own view.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and offers, and trades occur when there's a match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of the outcome occurring – in this case, the ERCOT West Hub average power price being above $35/MWh during Week 45. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their prices based on new information and their expectations, creating a dynamic market for predicting this energy price.

This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the ERCOT West Hub average real-time power price for Week 45 will be assessed against the $35/MWh threshold. The final price data from ERCOT will be used to determine whether contracts predicting a price above that level will pay out or not. Traders will then receive their winnings or losses based on the final outcome.

Several factors could influence the price of this market. Weather forecasts are a major driver, as extreme temperatures can significantly increase demand for electricity. Changes in renewable energy generation, such as wind or solar output, will also play a role. Unexpected outages at power plants, or transmission constraints, could also lead to price spikes. Finally, broader economic conditions and natural gas prices, a key fuel source for many power plants, can also impact the ERCOT power price.