TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

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ERCOT West Hub average real-time power price (Week 43)
kalshi

What will the ERCOT West Hub price be?

Volume:
$4,842

Above $0/MWh

 - Kalshi

Above $0/MWh - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 24, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 4:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $0/MWh

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$149
N/A
N/A
$58
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $25/MWh

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$48
N/A
N/A
$7
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $15/MWh

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
$9
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $35/MWh

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,217
N/A
N/A
$2,640
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $50/MWh

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$881
N/A
N/A
$316
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $100/MWh

View
0%
99%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$261
N/A
N/A
$159
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $200/MWh

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$257
N/A
N/A
$22
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

These markets track different thresholds of electricity prices in the ERCOT West Hub region over a specific week. Each market checks whether the average price across all hours meets or exceeds a set dollar amount, reflecting varying levels of price stress in the power grid.

Kalshi

All markets share identical secondary rules and calculation methodologies. The resolution depends on the simple average of all 15-minute real-time power prices at the ERCOT West Hub during the week from October 16, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT to October 23, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT. Prices are sourced from ERCOT’s NP6-905-CD settlement point, with intervals following Central-time conventions. The average is calculated from the first published prices, including negative values, and rounded to two decimal places, with exact halves resolved away from zero. Equality with the threshold resolves to 'No'. If trading closes on October 23, 2026, at 4:59 PM EDT, the final delivery interval is included. Only the first published prices are used; later corrections are considered only if they occur before expiration and are accepted as material error corrections. Unverified, estimated, indicative, and forecast prices are excluded. Missing data points are not filled; if at least 95% of intervals are available, the average is calculated from available prices. If less than 95% of intervals are available, the market resolves only if the available data conclusively determines the outcome; otherwise, it settles at the Exchange-determined last fair price under full rules.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the ERCOT power price market provides a real-time view of how traders are pricing the outcome. You’ll find the current price, the 24-hour trading volume of $2,729, and the total volume traded to date, which is currently $4,842. The dashboard also displays the implied probability of different price ranges, allowing you to gauge market sentiment. This information is updated continuously as traders buy and sell contracts, offering a dynamic perspective on expectations for West Hub power prices during Week 43.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for the ERCOT power price. While analysts often rely on complex models incorporating weather patterns and demand projections, this market aggregates the informed opinions of a diverse group of traders. This can lead to discrepancies, as the market may quickly incorporate new information or anticipate unforeseen events that haven't yet been factored into standard analytical reports. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming your own view on the likely outcome.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit bids (the price they are willing to buy a contract) and asks (the price they are willing to sell). When a bid and ask match, a trade occurs. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the consensus view of all participants, constantly adjusting as new information becomes available and traders update their expectations. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a highly liquid and efficient market, where the price quickly incorporates new data and reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the average real-time power price for the ERCOT West Hub during Week 43 will be used to determine the winning contracts. The final price will be sourced from publicly available data and verified to ensure accuracy. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the actual average price will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their stake. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and objective.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Unexpected weather patterns, such as a heatwave or cold snap, could dramatically increase demand for power and drive up prices. Outages at power generation facilities, whether due to planned maintenance or unforeseen events, could also reduce supply and push prices higher. Furthermore, changes in natural gas prices, which are a key input for many power plants, could influence the cost of electricity generation. Finally, any announcements regarding ERCOT grid conditions or regulatory changes could also move this market as traders adjust their expectations.