TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
ERCOT Houston Hub average real-time power price (Week 45)
kalshi

What will the ERCOT Houston Hub price be?

Oct 30, 2026, 5:00 PM EST - Nov 6, 2026, 5:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$16
Volume 24h:
$6N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$16
60%

Above $40/MWh

 - Kalshi

Above $40/MWh - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 6, 2026

Time left: 03d:17h:34m

ERCOT Houston Hub average power price above $40/MWh, Week 45?

73%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 66¢ buys you 152 shares | Odds: 73% Total Payout: $152 | Net Profit: $52 Multiplier: 1.52x | ROI: 52% APY not meaningful 3 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $40/MWh

Trade
73%
Yes 66¢No 63¢
29¢
N/A
$11
120%
N/A
$11
3d 17h 34m
Active
kalshi

Above $50/MWh

Trade
21%
Yes 22¢No 100¢
22¢
N/A
$5
0%
N/A
$5
3d 17h 34m
Active
kalshi

Above $20/MWh

Trade
N/A
N/A
10¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 17h 34m
Active
kalshi

Above $30/MWh

Trade
N/A
N/A
11¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 17h 34m
Active
kalshi

Above $65/MWh

Trade
N/A
N/A
20¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 17h 34m
Active
kalshi

Above $100/MWh

Trade
N/A
N/A
18¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 17h 34m
Active
kalshi

Above $200/MWh

Trade
N/A
N/A
18¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 17h 34m
Active
Total markets: 7

Description

The event tracks the average real-time electricity price at the ERCOT Houston Hub over a specific week, using 15-minute intervals to calculate a weekly average. This average is compared against several predefined thresholds to determine the outcome.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on whether the all-hours average real-time power price at the ERCOT Houston Hub exceeds specified thresholds ($20/MWh, $30/MWh, $40/MWh, $50/MWh, $65/MWh, $100/MWh, or $200/MWh) for the week ending November 6, 2026. The relevant period runs from October 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT to November 6, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST, including the start time but excluding the end time. Prices are drawn from ERCOT’s 15-minute real-time Settlement Point Prices for NP6-905-CD, following Central-time operating days and delivery-interval conventions. The calculation involves taking a simple average of all applicable 15-minute prices, including negative values, and rounding the result to two decimal places, with exact halves rounded away from zero. If the average equals the threshold, the market resolves to 'No.' Trading closes on November 6, 2026 at 4:59 PM EST, and the final delivery interval is included in calculations. Only the first published prices are used; later corrections are considered only if they occur before expiration and are accepted by the Exchange as correcting a material error. Unverified, estimated, indicative, and forecast prices are excluded. Missing data points are not filled in. If at least 95% of required intervals are available, the average is calculated from the available prices. If fewer than 95% of intervals are available, the outcome is resolved only if the available data unequivocally determines the result; otherwise, the market settles at the Exchange-determined last fair price under the full rules.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the ERCOT power price market tracks the current odds of the average real-time power price in the ERCOT Houston Hub during Week 45 being above $20/MWh. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the market has traded, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $6. The total volume traded on this market is $16. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and potential trading opportunities related to Texas power prices.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to analyst forecasts for this specific event. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional polls or analyst reports. This can lead to differences in predicted outcomes, as this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders actively assessing the factors influencing ERCOT power prices. It’s important to remember that both prediction markets and analyst forecasts are simply estimations of future events, and neither is guaranteed to be accurate.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, similar to a stock exchange. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the ERCOT Houston Hub average real-time power price during Week 45 will be above $20/MWh. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectations of the traders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market participants assign to that outcome occurring, and changes in price reflect new information or shifts in sentiment.

This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will be based on the average real-time power price at the ERCOT Houston Hub during Week 45, as reported by the relevant energy authorities. Traders will then be paid out or required to pay based on whether their contracts align with the actual outcome of the market. It’s important to monitor the market closely as the resolution date approaches.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 6, 2026. Weather forecasts are a key driver, as extreme temperatures (both hot and cold) typically lead to increased power demand. Unexpected outages at power plants, changes in renewable energy generation (wind and solar), and fluctuations in natural gas prices could also impact prices. Furthermore, any announcements regarding grid stability or emergency alerts issued by ERCOT could cause substantial shifts in trading activity and the price of contracts within this market.