TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Politics
Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
polymarket

Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?

Volume:
$557,213

40-64

 - Polymarket

40-64 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 9, 2026

Closed: Sep 9, 2:02 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

40-64

View
100%
52%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$158,193
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

65-89

0%
50%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$144,529
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<40

0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$91,964
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

90-114

0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$83,251
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

115-139

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$46,352
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

140-164

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,946
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

165-189

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,787
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

190-214

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,427
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

215-239

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,476
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

240+

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,289
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 40 and 64 times on X (formerly Twitter) between September 7 and September 9, 2026. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome a 93.5% probability, while the second most likely outcome – 65 to 89 posts – is at 5.5%. The resolution source for this market is Elon Musk’s X account, https://x.com/elonmusk. Keep an eye on Musk’s posting activity leading up to September 9, 2026, as that date marks the end of the betting period and when the market will resolve based on his post count during the specified timeframe.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 7 12:00 PM ET to September 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Elon Musk tweet count market displays the current odds of various outcomes regarding the number of tweets Elon Musk will post from September 7 to September 9, 2026. You can view the implied probability of each outcome, along with a price history chart illustrating how the market has traded over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $338,196, and the total market volume, which is $557,211. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare this market to traditional polling averages, as predicting tweet counts is not a common subject for public opinion surveys. However, looking at general sentiment towards Elon Musk and his social media activity could offer some insight. If public perception suggests he'll be less active on X (formerly Twitter), we might expect the odds to favor a lower tweet count. Conversely, if he’s expected to be highly engaged, the market may lean towards a higher number of tweets. It's important to remember that this market reflects what traders believe will happen, not necessarily what people *think* will happen.

This market resolves around Sep 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of tweets posted by Elon Musk on X (formerly Twitter) between September 7 and September 9, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count will be determined by an independent assessment of his X activity during that specific timeframe. The market will settle based on this verified tweet count, and traders holding shares in the correct outcome will be paid out accordingly. The resolution process ensures an objective and transparent determination of the outcome.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from Elon Musk or X regarding platform changes or his personal activity could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected events requiring his attention, such as a crisis or a significant business development, might reduce his time spent tweeting. Conversely, a planned marketing campaign or a particularly active period for X could lead to increased tweeting. Any news related to Elon Musk’s health or availability would also likely move the market. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding potential price fluctuations in this market.