TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 9, 2:02 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 40 and 64 times on X (formerly Twitter) between September 7 and September 9, 2026. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome a 93.5% probability, while the second most likely outcome – 65 to 89 posts – is at 5.5%. The resolution source for this market is Elon Musk’s X account, https://x.com/elonmusk. Keep an eye on Musk’s posting activity leading up to September 9, 2026, as that date marks the end of the betting period and when the market will resolve based on his post count during the specified timeframe.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 7 12:00 PM ET to September 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare this market to traditional polling averages, as predicting tweet counts is not a common subject for public opinion surveys. However, looking at general sentiment towards Elon Musk and his social media activity could offer some insight. If public perception suggests he'll be less active on X (formerly Twitter), we might expect the odds to favor a lower tweet count. Conversely, if he’s expected to be highly engaged, the market may lean towards a higher number of tweets. It's important to remember that this market reflects what traders believe will happen, not necessarily what people *think* will happen.
This market resolves around Sep 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of tweets posted by Elon Musk on X (formerly Twitter) between September 7 and September 9, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count will be determined by an independent assessment of his X activity during that specific timeframe. The market will settle based on this verified tweet count, and traders holding shares in the correct outcome will be paid out accordingly. The resolution process ensures an objective and transparent determination of the outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from Elon Musk or X regarding platform changes or his personal activity could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected events requiring his attention, such as a crisis or a significant business development, might reduce his time spent tweeting. Conversely, a planned marketing campaign or a particularly active period for X could lead to increased tweeting. Any news related to Elon Musk’s health or availability would also likely move the market. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding potential price fluctuations in this market.