TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 7, 2:03 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post fewer than 40 times on X (formerly Twitter) between September 5 and September 7, 2026. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome a 97.9% probability. The second most likely outcome, that Musk will post between 40 and 64 times, is at 1.6%. Resolution will be based on the post count from Elon Musk’s X account (https://x.com/elonmusk). Traders should watch closely for activity leading up to September 7, 2026, as that is the final day of the betting period and when the total number of posts will be counted to determine the market’s outcome.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 5 12:00 PM ET to September 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to traditional polling averages for this specific question. Polling on future tweet counts is not commonly conducted. However, generally, prediction markets often reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' that can differ from snapshot polls, especially when considering longer-term events. This market allows traders to incorporate a wider range of information and continuously update their beliefs as new data emerges, potentially offering a more nuanced forecast than a single poll could provide.
This market resolves around Sep 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of tweets posted by Elon Musk on X (formerly Twitter) between September 5 and September 7, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the publicly available tweet count, as recorded by a trusted source. The market will then settle to reflect whether the actual tweet count falls within one of the predefined outcome ranges offered in this market.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major news events involving Elon Musk, changes to his social media habits, or announcements regarding his priorities could all influence trader sentiment. A significant shift in his public engagement or a change in his role at X could also move the market. Additionally, any statements Musk makes about his planned social media activity during that period would be a key catalyst. Unexpected events or controversies could also lead to increased trading volume and price fluctuations in this market.