TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 11, 6:53 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 160 and 179 times on X (formerly Twitter) between September 4th and September 11th, 2026. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome a 94.5% probability, while the second most likely outcome – 180 to 199 posts – is at 3.7%. The market resolves based on the post count from Elon Musk’s X account, https://x.com/elonmusk. Traders should watch the volume of Musk’s posts as we approach September 11, 2026, as that date marks the end of the betting period and the final count for market resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 4 12:00 PM ET to September 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count of tweets posted by Elon Musk between the defined dates will settle all positions, closing the market based on objective, publicly available data without ambiguity.
Major announcements from Elon Musk, shifts in his public engagement strategies, or high-profile controversies involving the platforms he uses could significantly move this market. Additionally, unexpected technical changes — such as algorithm updates affecting tweet visibility — or periods of heightened activity around product launches may cause rapid reassessments among traders on Polymarket.