TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Elon Musk # tweets September 26 - September 28, 2026?
polymarket

Elon Musk # tweets September 26 - September 28, 2026?

Volume:
$738,840

40-64

 - Polymarket

40-64 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 28, 2026

Closed: Sep 28, 2:02 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

40-64

View
100%
24%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$185,720
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

65-89

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$195,662
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

90-114

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$159,248
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<40

View
0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$101,526
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

115-139

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$77,699
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

140-164

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,777
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

165-189

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,418
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

190-214

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,918
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

240+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$955
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

215-239

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$917
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 40 and 64 times on X (formerly Twitter) between September 26 and September 28, 2026. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome an 87.0% probability, while the second most likely outcome – 65 to 89 posts in the same timeframe – is at 13.0%. The resolution source for this market is Elon Musk’s X account, https://x.com/elonmusk. Traders should watch closely for Musk’s posting activity as the betting period concludes on September 28, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, as the final count will determine the market’s outcome.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 26 12:00 PM ET to September 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Elon Musk tweet count market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $472,030 and total volume to date is $738,840. Traders on Polymarket are expressing their beliefs about the number of tweets Elon Musk will post between September 26th and September 28th, 2026, and these beliefs are reflected in the market’s price. The dashboard provides a visual representation of how sentiment is shifting as new information becomes available.

It’s interesting to compare how this market is pricing in the likelihood of different tweet counts versus traditional polling data. While polls can gauge general public opinion, this market reflects what individuals are willing to put their money on. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than polls, as traders have a financial incentive to be well-informed and make correct predictions. However, current polling averages on similar topics show a wide range of expectations, making a direct comparison challenging without a specific poll focused on this exact question.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by new information and changing sentiment. Higher demand for shares in a particular outcome will increase its price, indicating a greater perceived likelihood of that outcome. Currently, the market is reflecting a complex interplay of factors influencing expectations about Elon Musk’s activity.

This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total number of tweets posted by Elon Musk on X (formerly Twitter) between 00:00 UTC on September 26, 2026, and 16:00 UTC on September 28, 2026. The final count will be determined by an independent verification of his X activity, ensuring a transparent and accurate settlement of this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any announcements from Elon Musk regarding his social media usage, changes to the X platform, or major world events that might capture his attention could all influence trading activity. Unexpected news related to his companies, such as Tesla or SpaceX, could also cause shifts in the market. Furthermore, broader trends in social media engagement and public discourse could play a role in shaping expectations about his tweet volume leading up to Sep 28, 2026.