TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Elon Musk # tweets September 21 - September 23, 2026?
polymarket

Elon Musk # tweets September 21 - September 23, 2026?

Volume:
$522,082

65-89

 - Polymarket

65-89 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 23, 2026

Closed: Sep 23, 2:02 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

65-89

View
100%
42%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$104,237
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

90-114

View
0%
38%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$119,581
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40-64

View
0%
32%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$85,943
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

115-139

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$85,923
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<40

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$44,071
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

140-164

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$36,343
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

165-189

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$28,007
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

190-214

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,321
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

215-239

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,988
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

240+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,668
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 65 and 89 times on X (formerly Twitter) between September 21st and September 23rd, 2026. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome an 87.0% probability, while the second most likely outcome – 90 to 114 posts – is at 13.5%. The market resolves based on the post count from Elon Musk’s official X account, https://x.com/elonmusk. Keep an eye on Musk’s posting activity leading up to September 23, 2026, as this date marks the end of the betting period and when the market will be resolved based on his activity during the specified timeframe.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 21 12:00 PM ET to September 23, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Elon Musk tweet count market displays the current odds of various outcomes regarding the number of tweets Elon Musk will post between September 21 and September 23, 2026. You can view the price history of each outcome, allowing you to analyze how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $232,427, and the total volume traded to date, which is $522,082. This provides a clear picture of market activity and investor confidence.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare this market to traditional polling averages, as predicting tweet counts is not a common subject for public opinion surveys. However, analysts who follow Elon Musk’s social media activity often estimate his posting frequency based on historical data and current events. These estimates frequently differ from the implied probabilities within this market, suggesting that traders are incorporating information beyond simple historical trends. It’s important to remember that prediction markets reflect what people are *willing to bet* on, which can differ from what they *believe* will happen.

This market resolves around Sep 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of tweets posted by Elon Musk on X (formerly Twitter) between September 21 and September 23, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official tweet count as recorded by X’s public API or a similar reliable source. The market will determine which outcome – representing a specific range of tweet counts – accurately reflects the final number of posts during that period.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major news events involving Elon Musk or his companies (Tesla, SpaceX, X) could influence his social media activity. Changes to X’s platform policies or algorithms could also affect his posting behavior. Furthermore, any announcements regarding his personal life or future projects could trigger increased or decreased tweeting. Unexpected world events or political developments might also prompt him to comment publicly, shifting the probabilities within this market. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential price movements.