TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,590,312

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,439,516,703

404,175

Markets across

30,277

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,685

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Elon Musk # tweets September 14 - September 16, 2026?
polymarket

Elon Musk # tweets September 14 - September 16, 2026?

Volume:
$551,382

40-64

 - Polymarket

40-64 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 16, 2026

Closed: Sep 16, 2:01 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

40-64

View
100%
25%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$124,182
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

65-89

View
0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$143,302
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

90-114

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$116,477
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<40

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$78,798
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

115-139

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$64,680
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

140-164

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,250
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

190-214

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,156
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

215-239

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,618
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

240+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,578
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

165-189

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,339
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 40 and 64 times on X (formerly Twitter) between September 14, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET and September 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome a 95.5% probability. The second most likely outcome, that Musk will post between 65 and 89 times during that period, is at 4.5%. The resolution source for this market is Elon Musk’s X account, https://x.com/elonmusk. Traders should watch closely for any announcements or changes in Musk’s posting habits leading up to the end of the betting period on September 16, 2026.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 14 12:00 PM ET to September 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Elon Musk tweet count market tracks the current odds of various outcomes regarding the number of tweets Elon Musk will post between September 14 and September 16, 2026. You can view the price history, which shows how the probabilities have shifted over time, and the 24-hour volume, currently at $350,402. The total volume traded on this market is $551,325. This provides a snapshot of how traders are assessing the likelihood of different tweet counts from Elon Musk during that period.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling averages, as predicting tweet counts isn't a common subject for public opinion surveys. However, sentiment analysis of social media and news articles regarding Elon Musk's activity could offer a rough comparison point. If analysts generally anticipate a period of high or low engagement from Elon Musk, it would be interesting to see if those expectations align with the probabilities reflected in this market. Discrepancies could indicate areas where the 'wisdom of the crowd' on Polymarket diverges from conventional analysis.

This market resolves around Sep 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of tweets posted by Elon Musk on X (formerly Twitter) between September 14 and September 16, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a publicly available count of his posts during that 72-hour window. The exact number of tweets will determine which outcome wins, but this market focuses on predicting the range within which the final tweet count will fall.

Several factors could significantly impact the odds in this market. Major announcements from Elon Musk or his companies (Tesla, SpaceX, X) could increase or decrease his social media activity. Changes to X's platform policies or algorithms could also influence his posting behavior. Unexpected events, such as significant news stories or controversies involving Elon Musk, could prompt a surge in tweets. Additionally, any public statements from Elon Musk himself regarding his planned social media usage could move this market substantially before Sep 16, 2026.