TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket

Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?

Oct 6, 2026, 12:00 AM EST - Oct 16, 2026, 12:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$2,377,488
Volume 24h:
$973,851
149%
Liquidity:
$301,934
16%
Open interest:
$367,779N/A

320-339

 - Polymarket

320-339 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 16, 2026

Time left: 01d:12h:12m

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?

28%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 28.5¢ buys you 351 shares | Odds: 28% Total Payout: $351 | Net Profit: $251 Multiplier: 3.51x | ROI: 251% APY not meaningful
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

320-339

Trade
28%
22%
Yes 28.5¢No 72.8¢
1.3¢
$7,264
$100,447
56%
856%
N/A
1d 12h 12m
active
polymarket

300-319

Trade
22%
11%
Yes 22.2¢No 78.5¢
0.7¢
$4,882
$94,629
57%
1,763%
N/A
1d 12h 12m
active
polymarket

340-359

Trade
17%
21%
Yes 18¢No 83.8¢
1.8¢
$5,247
$94,093
42%
1,286%
N/A
1d 12h 12m
active
polymarket

280-299

Trade
13%
5%
Yes 13.6¢No 88.3¢
1.9¢
$4,818
$107,620
86%
2,698%
N/A
1d 12h 12m
active
polymarket

360-379

Trade
10%
9%
Yes 10.4¢No 89.7¢
0.1¢
$4,578
$89,997
41%
1,360%
N/A
1d 12h 12m
active
polymarket

380-399

Trade
3%
2%
Yes 3.5¢No 97.1¢
0.6¢
$4,959
$107,705
72%
1,856%
N/A
1d 12h 12m
active
polymarket

260-279

Trade
2%
19%
Yes 2.3¢No 98¢
0.3¢
$10,625
$105,786
160%
5,666%
N/A
1d 12h 12m
active
polymarket

400-419

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.2¢
0.2¢
$15,944
$111,637
54%
1,321%
N/A
1d 12h 12m
active
polymarket

420-439

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.6¢
0.1¢
$7,093
$84,563
44%
728%
N/A
1d 12h 12m
active
polymarket

440-459

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.8¢
0.2¢
$11,630
$89,236
22%
495%
N/A
1d 12h 12m
active
polymarket

240-259

Trade
0%
34%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
0.2¢
$24,349
$153,879
233%
7,807%
N/A
1d 12h 12m
active
polymarket

460-479

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$14,325
$83,176
21%
506%
N/A
1d 12h 12m
active
polymarket

480-499

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$10,058
$74,809
21%
424%
N/A
1d 12h 12m
active
polymarket

220-239

Trade
0%
12%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$29,021
$191,209
276%
5,973%
N/A
1d 12h 12m
active
polymarket

200-219

Trade
0%
4%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$44,248
$158,816
137%
5,035%
N/A
1d 12h 12m
active
polymarket

500+

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$9,489
$127,216
14%
402%
N/A
1d 12h 12m
active
polymarket

160-179

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$93,403
$114,920
6%
2,745%
N/A
1d 12h 12m
active
polymarket

140-159

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$158,939
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 12h 12m
No
polymarket

180-199

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$131,060
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 12h 12m
No
polymarket

120-139

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$78,283
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 12h 12m
No
polymarket

100-119

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$43,977
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 12h 12m
No
polymarket

80-99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25,431
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 12h 12m
No
polymarket

60-79

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,417
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 12h 12m
No
polymarket

40-59

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,646
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 12h 12m
No
polymarket

<20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,511
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 12h 12m
No
Total markets: 25 of 26

Intro

This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 300 and 319 times on X, formerly Twitter, from October 9th to October 16th, 2026. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome a 29.0% probability, while the second most likely outcome – 280 to 299 posts – is at 20.4%. The resolution source for this market is Elon Musk’s X account, https://x.com/elonmusk. Traders should watch the volume of Musk’s posts as we approach the end of the betting period on October 16, 2026, to see if he is on track to reach the 300-319 tweet threshold.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 9 12:00 PM ET to October 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Elon Musk tweet count market displays the current odds for various ranges of tweets posted by Elon Musk between October 9 and October 16, 2026. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, and can also see the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $813,608. Total volume for this market is $2,377,488. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets on the final tweet count.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare this market to traditional polling averages, as predicting tweet counts is not a common subject for public opinion surveys. However, analysts who follow Elon Musk's social media activity often offer estimates of his posting frequency. These estimates can vary widely depending on current events and his personal priorities. This market provides a different perspective, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome, and may offer a more dynamic prediction than static analyst estimates.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where participants buy and sell shares representing their belief about the likelihood of different outcomes. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders enter the market, the prices adjust to reflect the aggregated sentiment. Currently, the most probable outcome, according to traders on Polymarket, is that Elon Musk will post between 300-319 tweets, with a chance of 27.9%.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of tweets posted by Elon Musk on X (formerly Twitter) between October 9 and October 16, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a verified count of all publicly visible tweets originating from his official account during that timeframe. Traders will be able to see the final result and any relevant supporting documentation on Polymarket following the resolution date.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major news events, particularly those involving Elon Musk or his companies, could influence his social media activity. Changes to X's policies or features could also affect his posting habits. Unexpected personal events or shifts in his public focus could also play a role. Additionally, any announcements regarding his schedule or travel plans during the specified timeframe could provide clues about his likely tweet volume, causing shifts in trading activity and the overall probabilities within this market.