TOTAL VOLUME:

$138.4b

24H VOL:

$100,175,802

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2,495,670,182

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,527,723,987

458,854

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34,821

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,814

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026?
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polymarket

Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026?

Sep 29, 2026, 12:00 AM EST - Oct 9, 2026, 12:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$3,731,878
Volume 24h:
$2,431,297
359%
Liquidity:
$417,928
24%
Open interest:
$486,021N/A

300-319

 - Polymarket

300-319 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 9, 2026

Time left: 01d:01h:49m

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?

35%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 35.5¢ buys you 282 shares | Odds: 35% Total Payout: $282 | Net Profit: $182 Multiplier: 2.82x | ROI: 182% APY not meaningful
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

300-319

Trade
35%
34%
Yes 35.5¢No 65.1¢
0.6¢
$8,362
$166,912
157%
1,922%
N/A
1d 1h 49m
active
polymarket

280-299

Trade
27%
24%
Yes 27.6¢No 73.8¢
1.4¢
$9,212
$144,958
166%
6,852%
N/A
1d 1h 49m
active
polymarket

320-339

Trade
18%
Yes 18.6¢No 82.5¢
1.1¢
$10,138
$138,881
260%
6,713%
N/A
1d 1h 49m
active
polymarket

340-359

Trade
9%
10%
Yes 9.4¢No 91.3¢
0.7¢
$9,723
$136,913
363%
6,345%
N/A
1d 1h 49m
active
polymarket

260-279

Trade
5%
4%
Yes 5.8¢No 94.9¢
0.7¢
$14,241
$176,614
278%
5,287%
N/A
1d 1h 49m
active
polymarket

360-379

Trade
4%
4%
Yes 4.2¢No 96.2¢
0.4¢
$9,177
$146,109
286%
8,695%
N/A
1d 1h 49m
active
polymarket

380-399

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 1.3¢No 98.8¢
0.1¢
$10,234
$111,724
257%
4,693%
N/A
1d 1h 49m
active
polymarket

400-419

Trade
1%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.6¢
0.2¢
$13,179
$102,579
343%
2,477%
N/A
1d 1h 49m
active
polymarket

180-199

Trade
0%
28%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$33,554
$364,638
192%
3,243%
N/A
1d 1h 49m
active
polymarket

160-179

Trade
0%
8%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$26,364
$333,542
184%
11,469%
N/A
1d 1h 49m
active
polymarket

200-219

Trade
0%
37%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$20,230
$314,034
248%
8,135%
N/A
1d 1h 49m
active
polymarket

420-439

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$15,587
$47,126
344%
1,046%
N/A
1d 1h 49m
active
polymarket

240-259

Trade
0%
5%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
0.2¢
$31,275
$241,711
250%
9,851%
N/A
1d 1h 49m
active
polymarket

220-239

Trade
0%
18%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$37,189
$284,018
256%
14,909%
N/A
1d 1h 49m
active
polymarket

140-159

Trade
0%
1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$36,459
$278,890
127%
17,875%
N/A
1d 1h 49m
active
polymarket

500+

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$30,256
$39,679
5%
123%
N/A
1d 1h 49m
active
polymarket

440-459

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$28,211
$27,048
36%
205%
N/A
1d 1h 49m
active
polymarket

480-499

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$37,134
$20,749
5%
116%
N/A
1d 1h 49m
active
polymarket

460-479

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$37,402
$20,709
5%
137%
N/A
1d 1h 49m
active
polymarket

120-139

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$245,224
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 49m
No
polymarket

80-99

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$230,797
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 49m
No
polymarket

100-119

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$153,990
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 49m
No
polymarket

60-79

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,874
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 49m
No
polymarket

40-59

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$71
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 49m
No
polymarket

20-39

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$65
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 49m
No
Total markets: 25 of 26

Intro

This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 300 and 319 times on X, formerly Twitter, from October 2nd to October 9th, 2026. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome a 34.2% probability, while the second most likely outcome – 280 to 299 posts – is at 24.6%. The market resolves based on the post count from Elon Musk’s official X account (https://x.com/elonmusk). Keep an eye on Musk’s posting activity as we approach October 9, 2026, as that date marks the end of the betting period and when the market will be settled based on the total number of qualifying posts.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 2 12:00 PM ET to October 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Elon Musk tweet count market tracks the current odds of various outcomes regarding the number of tweets Elon Musk will post between October 2nd and October 9th, 2026. You'll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $2,122,400. The total volume traded on this market is $3,731,878. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets on this specific event.

Generally, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional polls. While polls capture stated opinions, this market reflects what people are willing to *wager* on, often revealing more accurate forecasts. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when strong biases or emotional factors are at play in public opinion. For example, if polls suggest a certain tweet count is unlikely, but traders believe it’s probable due to a specific event, the odds on Polymarket will adjust accordingly. This market provides a unique signal based on financial incentives.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. As more shares are bought for a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting a higher probability. Conversely, selling shares drives the price down. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. Currently, the most likely outcome, according to traders, is posting 440-459 tweets, with a chance percentage of 35.2%.

This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of tweets posted by Elon Musk on X (formerly Twitter) between October 2nd and October 9th, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a publicly available count of his posts during that period. The market will settle to 100% for the outcome that most accurately reflects the actual tweet count, as determined by the available data. Traders should monitor news sources for the official count as the resolution date approaches.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major news events involving Elon Musk, changes to his posting habits, or announcements regarding X (formerly Twitter) could all shift trader sentiment. For example, a major product launch or a controversial statement could lead to a surge in his tweet activity. Conversely, a period of relative quiet or a deliberate decision to reduce his presence on the platform could lower expectations. Any significant shift in public attention towards Musk or his companies is likely to influence the odds on Polymarket.