TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Elon Musk # tweets June 27 - June 29, 2026?
polymarket

Elon Musk # tweets June 27 - June 29, 2026?

Volume:
$1,304,679

40-64

 - Polymarket

40-64 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 29, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 12:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

40-64

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$263,130
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

65-89

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$432,535
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<40

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$219,963
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

90-114

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$218,598
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

115-139

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$67,174
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

140-164

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25,732
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

190-214

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,891
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

215-239

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,199
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

240+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,646
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

165-189

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,811
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market tracks how many tweets Elon Musk will post on X during a specific three-day window in late June 2026. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—that Musk posts between 40 and 64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026—stands at 86.5%, while the outcome for 65 to 89 tweets is at 13.2%. Resolution will be determined by counting posts on @elonmusk, excluding replies, from June 27 at 12:00 PM ET through June 29 at 12:00 PM ET. Watch for any major announcements or events Musk engages with during the June 27–29 betting window, as significant news could drive his posting activity.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 27 12:00 PM ET to June 29, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Elon Musk tweet volume market dashboard displays real-time odds and historical price movement for a binary outcome tied to Elon Musk's posting activity over a specific three-day window. The dashboard shows current market probability, 24-hour trading volume of $850,134, and cumulative liquidity. Traders use this interface to monitor how market sentiment shifts as the event window approaches, with odds reflecting the collective prediction of whether a threshold tweet count will be reached during the specified dates.

Prediction markets and traditional polls measure different phenomena. Polls typically capture stated preferences or beliefs at a single moment, while this market aggregates real-money bets from traders with financial incentives to forecast accurately. For social media activity like tweet volume, prediction markets often incorporate real-time data and rapid trader response to breaking news, whereas polls rely on survey samples. Market odds tend to update faster than poll averages, making them a complementary signal rather than a direct comparison point.

This market resolves around Jun 29, 2026, once the event window closes and the outcome becomes verifiable. The result will be confirmed by checking credible public sources to determine whether the specified threshold for tweet volume was met during the three-day period. Resolution occurs automatically once the data is finalized, and traders' positions settle based on whether the actual outcome matches the binary option they backed.

Several factors could shift odds in this market. Major news events or controversies involving Elon Musk or his companies may trigger increased social media activity. Changes to platform policies, account restrictions, or technical issues could also influence posting patterns. Market sentiment often reacts to broader developments in tech, politics, or business that might prompt commentary. Additionally, as the event window draws closer, traders typically incorporate more recent behavioral data, causing the odds to converge toward a final probability reflecting the most up-to-date expectations.