TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 29, 6:18 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 65 and 89 tweets on X from July 27 to July 29, 2026. On Polymarket, the current probability that he will post 65-89 tweets is 100.0%, with the second outcome, 90-114 tweets, at 0.1%. The resolution will be based on activity tracked at https://x.com/elonmusk. Watch for the end of the tweet-counting window on July 29, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, which will determine the market outcome.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 27 12:00 PM ET to July 29, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Unlike traditional polls that sample public opinion, this market uses real-money bets to set its odds. While polls might ask general questions about public perception of Elon Musk’s activity, this market reflects the aggregated wisdom of traders who have skin in the game, often leading to sharper, more timely adjustments based on breaking news or behavioral signals.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders place bets that directly set the market price through a zero-sum exchange of contracts. The current top outcome’s implied probability reflects the collective assessment of participants about how many tweets Elon Musk will send, adjusting continuously with each new trade and any relevant developments influencing expectations.
This market resolves around Jul 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public sources. The exact tweet count posted by Elon Musk during the defined three-day window will settle the market, closing all positions based on the officially recorded data from public platforms.
News about Elon Musk’s schedule, social media activity spikes, or announcements about verified accounts can shift this market. Major events such as product launches, controversies, or platform outages affecting Twitter or X may also cause rapid changes in trader sentiment, moving odds as participants reassess the likelihood of various tweet counts.