TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Elon Musk # tweets July 17 - July 24, 2026?
polymarket

Elon Musk # tweets July 17 - July 24, 2026?

Volume:
$3,649,274

200-219

 - Polymarket

200-219 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 24, 2026

Closed: Jul 24, 4:38 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

200-219

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$386,913
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

220-239

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$431,445
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

240-259

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$424,462
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

160-179

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$319,595
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

180-199

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$317,110
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

260-279

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$260,767
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

140-159

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$201,092
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

80-99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$177,893
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

120-139

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$170,887
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

100-119

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$167,839
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

280-299

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$142,515
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

300-319

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$138,109
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

60-79

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$110,594
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

320-339

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$52,508
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

340-359

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$52,093
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

400-419

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$49,065
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

500+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$47,774
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

440-459

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37,844
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40-59

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30,502
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

360-379

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,408
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

380-399

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,458
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

420-439

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,513
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

460-479

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,248
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

480-499

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,191
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20-39

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,214
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 26

Intro

This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 200 and 219 tweets on X from July 17 to July 24, 2026, with the current probability at Polymarket set at 98.4% for that outcome, while the second outcome, posting 220 to 239 tweets, stands at 1.8%. Resolution will be based on activity tracked at https://x.com/elonmusk. Watch for the market to resolve after the end of the tweeting period on July 24, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 17 12:00 PM ET to July 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and traditional polls measure different things: polls ask people what they think will happen, while this market reveals what traders are willing to stake money on. Market odds reflect financial incentives to be accurate, often incorporating real-time signals that surveys miss. For a behavioral metric like tweet volume, prediction markets can aggregate dispersed knowledge about Musk's typical patterns, recent activity trends, and any announced events during the forecast window. Comparing market prices to expert estimates or historical baselines can highlight where traders see unusual risk or opportunity.

This market resolves around Jul 24, 2026, once the forecast period closes and Musk's actual tweet count for July 17–24, 2026 can be verified. The outcome is confirmed by comparing his public tweet activity against credible public sources, determining which range his final total falls into. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution typically occurs within days of the period ending, once the data is finalized and auditable.

Several factors could shift odds before Jul 24, 2026. Major announcements from Musk or Tesla, regulatory developments, or significant news cycles may prompt him to tweet more or less frequently. Historical patterns of his activity during similar weeks provide baseline expectations; deviations from those patterns could trigger repricing. Technical issues on X (formerly Twitter), changes in his communication strategy, or high-profile events requiring his public response could all influence trading. As the forecast week approaches, traders will refine estimates based on real-time signals and any new information about his likely availability and engagement.