TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Elon Musk # tweets August 31 - September 2, 2026?
polymarket

Elon Musk # tweets August 31 - September 2, 2026?

Volume:
$610,421

40-64

 - Polymarket

40-64 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 2, 2026

Closed: Sep 2, 2:07 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

40-64

View
100%
56%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$218,678
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

65-89

View
0%
46%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$131,128
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

90-114

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$94,842
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<40

View
0%
32%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$86,851
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

115-139

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$47,911
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

140-164

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,962
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

165-189

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,776
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

190-214

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,170
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

240+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,076
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

215-239

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,026
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 40 and 64 times on X (formerly Twitter) between August 31st at 12:00 PM ET and September 2nd, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Currently, Polymarket gives a 99.6% probability to this outcome. The second most likely outcome, that Musk will post between 65 and 89 times during that period, is priced at 0.7%. The resolution source for this market is Elon Musk’s X account, https://x.com/elonmusk. Keep an eye on Musk’s posting activity leading up to September 2, 2026, as that date marks the end of the betting period and when the market will resolve based on his total post count.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 31 12:00 PM ET to September 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

Unlike traditional polls that sample public opinion, this market uses real-money bets to set its odds. Traders weigh factors like Musk’s recent tweet frequency, scheduled events, and media appearances. As a result, this market often reflects a more nuanced, data-driven outlook compared to general polling averages, especially for high-profile figures with volatile online behavior.

This market resolves around Sep 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the exact number of Elon Musk’s tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The count will be final once authoritative sources like social media archives and news platforms confirm the data.

Key signals include announced appearances, product launches, or controversies involving Elon Musk that could drive tweet activity. Any scheduled interviews, policy announcements, or engagement with trending topics near the resolution window may also shift expectations. Unexpected technical glitches or platform changes could further influence this market as the date approaches.