TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 24, 2:01 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 40 and 64 tweets on X from August 22 to August 24, 2026, with the leading outcome currently at 97.5% and the second outcome at 1.9% on Polymarket. The resolution will be based on activity tracked at https://x.com/elonmusk. Watch for the end of the posting window on August 24, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, which will determine the final count and market resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 22 12:00 PM ET to August 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Unlike traditional polls, this market uses real-money bets to reflect trader expectations about Elon Musk’s tweet activity. While polls gather public opinions, this market aggregates trader confidence through wagers, often showing sharper or more volatile shifts based on breaking news, platform algorithm changes, or Musk’s own behavior patterns that could influence tweet volume.
This market resolves around Aug 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public sources. The final tweet count posted by Elon Musk from August 22 to August 24, 2026, will settle all contracts, matching the activity recorded on public platforms against the market’s defined ranges.
News about Elon Musk’s schedule, platform announcements affecting Twitter/X usage, major events or controversies involving Musk, and even technical issues like platform outages could shift this market. Traders will also watch for any indication of planned social media breaks or unusually high-activity periods that might increase or decrease expected tweet volume over the August 22–24 window.