TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 25, 2:04 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 320 and 339 tweets on X from August 18 to August 25, 2026. On Polymarket, the current probability that he will post 320-339 tweets is 97.5%, while the probability for 340-359 tweets is 2.4%. The resolution will be based on activity tracked at https://x.com/elonmusk, with the final count due by August 25, 2026. Watch for the end of the betting period on August 25, 2026, to see if the tweet count falls within this range.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 18 12:00 PM ET to August 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set prices through a continuous order book where bids and asks determine the current odds. The top outcome, Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?, reflects the collective judgment of participants about tweet volume probabilities, adjusted for liquidity and trader activity.
This market resolves around Aug 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The exact tweet count posted by Elon Musk during the specified period will determine which range — from zero to more than 80 tweets — is correct, closing the market and paying out winners accordingly.