TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Elon Musk # tweets August 10 - August 12, 2026?
polymarket

Elon Musk # tweets August 10 - August 12, 2026?

Volume:
$553,488

<40

 - Polymarket

<40 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 12, 2026

Closed: Aug 12, 3:41 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

<40

View
100%
48%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$155,603
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

65-89

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$186,874
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40-64

View
0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$125,941
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

90-114

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$52,578
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

115-139

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,070
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

140-164

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,172
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

165-189

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,138
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

190-214

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,388
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

215-239

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$887
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

240+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$838
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post fewer than 40 tweets on X from August 10 to August 12, 2026. On Polymarket, the current probability that he will post fewer than 40 tweets is 100.0%, with an alternative outcome of him posting 65-89 tweets at 0.1%. The resolution will be based on activity tracked at https://x.com/elonmusk, and the final count will be confirmed by August 12, 2026.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 10 12:00 PM ET to August 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Elon Musk tweet count market dashboard displays real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $373,265. This tool shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing the likelihood of different tweet counts from Elon Musk during the specified period, giving you a snapshot of market sentiment and activity for the Elon Musk tweet count market.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set prices through buying and selling contracts that represent different possible tweet counts. The current odds reflect the collective assessment of participants about the range of tweets Elon Musk is expected to post. Higher trading volume typically indicates greater confidence or interest in the market’s outcome among Polymarket users.

This market resolves around Aug 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count of tweets posted by Elon Musk during the specified three-day window will determine which contract pays out, based on publicly accessible data from the relevant social media platform.

Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including high-profile announcements, media coverage, or major events involving Elon Musk that might affect his social media activity. Any indication of planned high-engagement moments, technical issues with the platform, or unexpected personal circumstances could also influence trader sentiment and move odds on Polymarket as the resolution date approaches.