TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Elon Musk # tweets August 1 - August 3, 2026?
polymarket

Elon Musk # tweets August 1 - August 3, 2026?

Volume:
$827,199

40-64

 - Polymarket

40-64 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 3, 2026

Closed: Aug 3, 2:05 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

40-64

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$182,821
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

<40

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$205,897
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

65-89

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$203,312
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

90-114

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$114,975
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

115-139

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$45,932
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

140-164

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27,038
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

165-189

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,687
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

190-214

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,044
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

240+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,363
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

215-239

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,130
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 40 and 64 tweets on X from August 1 to August 3, 2026. On Polymarket, the current probability that he will post 40-64 tweets is 100.0%, with the alternative outcome of fewer than 40 tweets at 0.1%. The resolution will be based on activity tracked at https://x.com/elonmusk, and the final count will be confirmed by August 3, 2026.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 1 12:00 PM ET to August 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Elon Musk tweet count market shows live odds, price trends, and 24-hour volume on Polymarket. It updates in real time as traders place bets on whether Elon Musk will send a specific number of tweets during the August 1–3, 2026 period. You can watch how market expectations shift and see total volume of $827,199 and recent activity of $511,581.

Unlike traditional polls that ask people for their opinions, this market uses real money to set its odds. Traders are betting on the actual number of tweets Elon Musk will send. Because participants put skin in the game, prediction market odds often reflect a more informed view than simple polling averages, especially for events like this where public opinion may be less reliable than actual market behavior.

This market resolves around Aug 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count of tweets Elon Musk posts from August 1 to August 3, 2026 will settle the market, and contracts will pay out based on that official number.

News about Elon Musk’s schedule, social media activity, or any major announcements he makes could shift expectations and move this market. If he hints at plans to post more or fewer tweets, or if there are technical issues that affect tweet visibility, traders will react. Any surge in public discussion around his activity may also cause rapid price changes as participants adjust their bets ahead of Aug 3, 2026.