TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 31, 6:29 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Elon Musk's net worth will exceed $630 billion based on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that his net worth will be above this threshold—stands at 99.0%. Resolution will be determined by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index update scheduled for May 31, 2026, with the market settling by June 8, 2026. Watch for significant movements in Tesla's stock price and any major changes in Musk's asset holdings leading up to the May 31 measurement date.
The market resolves on Jun 8, 2026, after May 31 when Bloomberg publishes its official net worth assessment for Elon Musk. The outcome is determined by comparing Bloomberg's reported figure to the threshold specified in the contract. This reliance on a single, authoritative third-party source ensures objective settlement without ambiguity. Traders should monitor Bloomberg's methodology and any announcements about asset valuations in the weeks leading up to resolution. The binary structure means the contract settles to either 0 or 100 cents based on whether the threshold is met, with no partial payouts.
Tesla stock price movements are the primary driver, since the majority of Musk's wealth is tied to his Tesla holdings. Major catalysts include quarterly earnings reports, production updates, regulatory actions, and macroeconomic shifts affecting EV valuations. SpaceX funding rounds or valuation changes also influence total net worth. Musk's personal transactions, such as stock sales, pledges, or acquisitions, directly impact Bloomberg's calculations. Broader market sentiment toward tech and growth stocks affects Tesla's multiple. Geopolitical events, interest rate changes, and competition in electric vehicles create volatility. Any public statements from Musk about his wealth or asset allocation can shift trader expectations and market pricing before the May 31 snapshot date.