TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 13, 6:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks Elon Musk's financial standing as assessed by a reputable financial index on a specific future date. It examines whether his net worth surpasses various extremely high thresholds, reflecting potential growth in his wealth over the coming years. The outcome depends solely on the official valuation published by the index on that exact date.
The event evaluates multiple thresholds for Elon Musk’s net worth as reported by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on August 13, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct monetary threshold, ranging from above 775 billion to above 950 billion. All markets resolve based exclusively on the net worth figure published by Bloomberg on that specific date. If Musk’s net worth meets or exceeds any of the specified thresholds, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The resolution of each market is independent, and no threshold influences another directly. Secondary rules and outcome labels serve only to categorize and describe potential results without altering the core resolution mechanism.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a broader, more immediate consensus driven by real-time trading activity. While analysts may publish detailed reports with long-term projections, the market price incorporates rapid reactions to news, financial performance, and investor sentiment. This can lead to notable differences, especially around key corporate events or macroeconomic shifts that affect high-net-worth individuals.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders determine the price through continuous bidding and asking, with the current top outcome reflecting the aggregate expectation for Elon Musk’s net worth by Aug 21, 2026. The market uses a logarithmic market scoring rule to incentivize accurate forecasting, and volume of $24,077 helps gauge liquidity and trader interest. Prices update instantly to reflect new information and trading patterns.
This market resolves around Aug 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final net worth figure will be determined by authoritative financial disclosures, wealth tracking publications, or official statements, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process for all participants on Kalshi.
Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including major business announcements from Musk’s ventures, stock price movements of companies he owns, market-wide economic changes, or high-profile interviews discussing wealth. Any unexpected liquidity events, such as asset sales or new investments, may also cause rapid price adjustments as traders reassess the most likely outcome for his net worth by Aug 21, 2026.