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Durable Goods Orders MoM - May 2026
polymarket

Durable Goods Orders MoM - May 2026

Volume:
$92,857

<-4%

 - Polymarket

<-4% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 25, 2026

Closed: Jun 25, 2:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

<-4%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$18,794
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

-4%– -2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,177
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2%–4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,020
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0%–2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,438
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

4%–6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,649
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

6%-8%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,085
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

-2%– 0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,094
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

8%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,601
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Description

This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Polymarket

This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Frequently asked questions

The Durable Goods Orders MoM - May 2026 dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for this key economic indicator. It displays current market probabilities for different outcome ranges, 24-hour trading volume of $18,707, and cumulative group volume of $92,857. The dashboard updates continuously as traders adjust positions based on incoming economic data, Fed communications, and manufacturing sentiment. You can monitor how market participants are pricing the month-over-month change in durable goods orders for May 2026, providing a live gauge of collective expectations for this important measure of business investment and economic health.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket often diverge from consensus economist forecasts for durable goods orders. While traditional analysts issue point estimates and confidence intervals based on econometric models, prediction markets aggregate real-money bets from traders with diverse information sets and incentives. Market odds may price in tail risks, geopolitical shocks, or supply-chain disruptions that surveys miss. Conversely, markets sometimes overshoot on short-term sentiment swings. Comparing Polymarket probabilities against Bloomberg consensus or Federal Reserve survey expectations reveals whether traders are more or less bullish on May 2026 durable goods growth than the mainstream forecast.

The Durable Goods Orders MoM - May 2026 market resolves on Jun 25, 2026, following the official release of May durable goods data by the U.S. Census Bureau. The outcome is determined by the month-over-month percentage change in new orders for manufactured durable goods, which typically arrives in early June. Resolution hinges on the final Census Bureau print and any subsequent revisions to prior months. The market will settle based on which predefined outcome range the actual reported figure falls into, closing all open positions and distributing winnings to holders of the correct outcome shares.

Several catalysts could shift Polymarket odds before Jun 25, 2026. Manufacturing PMI releases, jobless claims, and industrial production data in the months leading up to May will signal underlying demand. Fed rate decisions and forward guidance influence business capital expenditure plans. Trade policy announcements, tariff changes, or geopolitical tensions affect supply chains and order timing. Corporate earnings calls and guidance on capex intentions provide directional clues. Unexpected inventory swings or credit conditions may prompt order acceleration or postponement. Additionally, revisions to prior months' durable goods figures can reset baseline expectations, and any surprise in April data will immediately reprrice May probabilities.