TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 6, 10:29 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of DraftKings app downloads for a specific month compared to the same month in the previous year. It uses an index where 100 represents equal downloads to the prior year, with higher numbers showing growth. The event evaluates whether download figures exceed various thresholds, reflecting different levels of year-over-year increase.
These markets resolve based on the Carbon Arc DraftKings App Downloads index for August 2026, comparing it to August of the prior year. The index uses a base of 100 to represent equal year-over-year downloads, with values above 100 indicating growth and below 100 indicating decline. Each market has a specific threshold (e.g., above 120, above 140, etc.), and if the reported index value for August 2026 exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The determining value is the first reported figure from Carbon Arc, and any subsequent corrections or revisions after settlement do not affect the outcome. All markets track app downloads for DraftKings Sportsbook & Casino and are independent of any official affiliation with the company, with all trademarks and brand names belonging to their respective owners.
Compared to analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations. Analysts may incorporate broader trends and historical data, while traders on Kalshi respond quickly to news, app performance, and promotional events. This can lead to divergence, especially around key marketing pushes or platform updates.
This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the August download figures are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final numbers are compared against the market’s defined ranges to determine which outcome was correct, closing the market and paying out winners based on the pre-set terms.
Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including major promotional campaigns by DraftKings, changes in app store rankings, competitor activity, or news around new features or controversies. Any event that influences user behavior or download rates — such as a high-profile partnership or a technical outage — may cause rapid price changes on Kalshi as traders adjust their expectations.