This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Dow Jones Industrial Average closing price for Dow Jones (DJIA) on Monday, August 24, 2026 is higher than the official Dow Jones Industrial Average closing price for DJIA on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Dow Jones Industrial Average closing price for Dow Jones (DJIA) on Monday, August 24, 2026 is lower than the official Dow Jones Industrial Average closing price for DJIA on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If DJIA does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Dow Jones Industrial Average for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Polymarket

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the DJIA direction market tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $3,319. It shows how traders on Polymarket are positioning around the likelihood of the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing higher or lower on the specified date. The interface updates continuously to reflect market sentiment and trading activity, giving users a live view of where the market stands.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of market expectations. While analysts may incorporate macro models and long-term trends, traders in this market price in real-time data, news flow, and short-term technical factors. This can lead to divergence, especially around key economic releases or unexpected events that shift market sentiment quickly.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this market is priced through a decentralized order book where traders submit bids and asks to determine the current probability odds. The top outcome’s implied chance reflects the inverse of its current price, updated instantly with each new trade. Liquidity levels and recent trading volume of $3,319 help shape how efficiently prices adjust to new information.

This market resolves around Aug 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. On that date, the final closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be checked against the market’s defined criteria to determine whether the index closed higher or lower, settling all positions accordingly.

Key signals that could shift this market include major U.S. economic data releases such as GDP revisions, Federal Reserve policy announcements, sudden shifts in corporate earnings expectations, or geopolitical developments impacting global markets. Any surprise events—whether policy changes, market crashes, or unexpected geopolitical tensions—could cause rapid repricing as traders adjust their bets based on new information.

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