TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Science and Technology
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts June 9 - June 16, 2026?
polymarket
kalshi

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts June 9 - June 16, 2026?

Volume:
$118,854

At least 15

 - Kalshi

At least 15 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 16, 2026

Closed: Jun 8, 8:47 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

At least 15

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,256
N/A
N/A
$1,255
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 10

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,252
N/A
N/A
$1,252
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$817
N/A
N/A
$816
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 3

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$811
N/A
N/A
$811
Settled
Yes
polymarket

120-139

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$7,279
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

100-119

View
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢
—
N/A
$50,967
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20-39

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$6,433
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

80-99

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$6,379
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

140-159

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$5,412
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

60-79

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$5,135
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40-59

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$4,748
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

160-179

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$4,646
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

200+

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$4,585
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<20

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$4,294
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 50

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,121
N/A
N/A
$3,390
Settled
No
polymarket

180-199

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$4,030
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,920
N/A
N/A
$2,223
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 25

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,768
N/A
N/A
$2,447
Settled
No
Total markets: 18

Description

This event group tracks Donald Trump's Truth Social posting activity during mid-June 2026 across two distinct measurement frameworks: Polymarket measures total post volume (0-200+ posts) during June 9-16, while Kalshi measures election endorsement frequency (3-50+ endorsements) during June 7-13. The markets operate on different time windows, different metrics, and different resolution sources.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi measure distinct metrics (total posts vs. endorsements only) across different time windows (June 9-16 ET vs. June 7-13) with different primary resolution sources (xtracker.polymarket.com vs. Truth Social). No logical bridge exists between the two measurement frameworks.Hero tip: Treat these as two independent prediction markets. Polymarket resolution depends on automated post counting via xtracker; Kalshi resolution depends on manual identification of endorsement language on Truth Social. High posting volume on Polymarket does not predict endorsement count on Kalshi. Monitor both sources separately and do not cross-hedge between platforms.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Measures total Truth Social posts (main feed, quotes, reposts only; replies excluded unless on main feed) from June 9, 12:00 PM ET to June 16, 12:00 PM ET. Primary resolution source is xtracker.polymarket.com Post Counter; secondary source is Truth Social itself. Deleted posts count if captured within ~5 minutes. Offers 10 mutually exclusive buckets: 0-19, 20-39, 40-59, 60-79, 80-99, 100-119, 120-139, 140-159, 160-179, 180-199, 200+.
  • Kalshi: Measures election endorsements only (a subset of all posts) from June 7, 2026 through June 13, 2026 using Truth Social as the resolution source. Offers 7 separate Yes/No markets at thresholds: 3, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 50 endorsements. Does not measure total post volume.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between June 9, 12:00 PM ET and June 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the number of people Donald Trump endorses for election on Truth Social from June 7 through June 13, 2026. Any formal endorsement qualifies, including reaffirmations of prior endorsements. If Trump endorses multiple people in the same election, all count toward the total. The endorsement must be a clear, affirmative statement of support such as "I endorse [candidate] for [office]," "I support [candidate]" referencing a political race, "Vote for [candidate]," or "[candidate] has my full support" for a specific race. Ambiguous statements of support do not qualify. A person cannot be counted more than once in a given week. Merely posting a graphic stating a candidate was endorsed by Trump does not qualify.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market activity across Polymarket and Kalshi to track consensus expectations around Donald Trump's Truth Social posting volume during the week of June 9–16, 2026. Polymarket focuses on whether Trump will post between 0–19 times, while Kalshi tracks endorsement activity on the platform. By monitoring odds across both venues, traders and observers gain a cross-platform view of how the market collectively assesses Trump's social media engagement during this specific seven-day window. Real-time volume and price data help identify shifting sentiment.

Prediction markets for Trump's Truth Social activity differ fundamentally from traditional polling. Rather than surveying voter sentiment or approval, these markets aggregate trader beliefs about Trump's actual posting behavior—a measurable, verifiable outcome. Polling captures opinions; prediction markets price future facts. The odds on Polymarket and Kalshi reflect real financial incentives for accuracy, making them forward-looking indicators of expected activity. No direct polling equivalent exists for this specific metric, so prediction market odds serve as the primary quantitative benchmark for anticipating Trump's social media output during June 9–16, 2026.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket and Kalshi track related but distinct outcomes: Polymarket measures total post volume (0–19 range), while Kalshi focuses on endorsement frequency (3 or more). Differences in trader composition, liquidity depth, and user base can also create price divergence. Polymarket typically attracts retail and international traders, while Kalshi serves a more regulated, US-focused audience. Varying market-making strategies, fee structures, and time-zone activity patterns further explain why the same underlying event—Trump's Truth Social behavior—may be priced differently across venues. Arbitrage opportunities occasionally emerge from these gaps.