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24H VOL:

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$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

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VS.

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Donald Trump # Truth Social posts June 5 - June 12, 2026?
polymarket
kalshi

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts June 5 - June 12, 2026?

Volume:
$47,203

Yes

 - Kalshi

Yes - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 12, 2026

Closed: Jun 22, 2:26 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Yes

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,961
N/A
N/A
$8,085
Settled
Yes
polymarket

100-119

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$3,350
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

40-59

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,954
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

60-79

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,842
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

120-139

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,033
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

80-99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,629
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

140-159

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,254
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20-39

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,681
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

180-199

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,594
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

160-179

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,481
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,390
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

200+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,035
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Description

This event group tracks the number of Truth Social posts (main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts, excluding replies) made by Donald Trump's account (@realDonaldTrump) during a specific 7-day window from June 5-12, 2026. Polymarket offers granular bucket markets (0-19, 20-39, 40-59, etc. up to 200+), while Kalshi offers a simple binary on whether any posts occur at all.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Platform and timing scope divergence. Polymarket targets Truth Social posts within a precise 7-day window (June 5-12, 2026, 12:00 PM ET boundaries); Kalshi targets X posts within a loose month-long window (after issuance, before July 2026). Additionally, Kalshi does not specify post-type rules as clearly as Polymarket.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets. Polymarket's bucket structure is deterministic and tied to a specific tracker; Kalshi's binary is ambiguous on exact timing and platform. Verify Kalshi's issuance date and confirm whether it refers to X or Truth Social before trading. Do not assume one market's outcome predicts the other.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Quantitative bucket market on Truth Social posts (main feed, quote posts, reposts only; replies excluded) from June 5, 12:00 PM ET to June 12, 12:00 PM ET, 2026. Resolution via xtracker.polymarket.com Post Counter, with Truth Social as fallback. Deleted posts count if captured within ~5 minutes.
  • Kalshi: Binary market on whether realDonaldTrump posts, quote posts, and reposts on X (not Truth Social) occur above 0 times (excluding replies) after Issuance and before July 2026. No specific start time, end time, or tracker specified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between June 5, 12:00 PM ET and June 12, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Kalshi

If realDonaldTrump posts, quote posts, and reposts on X above 0 times (not including replies) after Issuance and before July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market data across Polymarket and Kalshi to track consensus odds on how many Truth Social posts Donald Trump will publish during the week of June 5–12, 2026. The event captures real-time pricing from multiple venues, allowing traders and observers to compare how different platforms weigh the likelihood of specific post-count outcomes. By monitoring cross-platform activity, the dashboard reveals whether markets are converging on a consensus view or diverging based on platform-specific trader composition and liquidity.

Prediction markets for Trump's Truth Social activity differ fundamentally from traditional polling. Rather than surveying voter sentiment or approval, these markets price the actual behavioral outcome—post frequency during a specific week. Polling averages measure public opinion; prediction markets aggregate financial incentives and trader beliefs about verifiable facts. For this event, market odds reflect traders' expectations based on Trump's historical posting patterns, platform engagement trends, and any anticipated events during June 5–12, 2026. Markets often incorporate information faster than polls update.