TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Donald Trump # Truth Social posts June 30 - July 7, 2026?
polymarket
kalshi

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts June 30 - July 7, 2026?

Volume:
$296,302

100-119

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 6, 2026

Closed: Jul 5, 9:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

100-119

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$40,534
N/A
N/A
$15,827
Settled
Yes
polymarket

100-119

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,953
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

200+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$9,653
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

80-99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$49,710
N/A
N/A
$15,571
Settled
No
polymarket

80-99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,191
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

140-159

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$33,915
N/A
N/A
$17,571
Settled
No
polymarket

140-159

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,633
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

120-139

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$31,216
N/A
N/A
$9,498
Settled
No
polymarket

120-139

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,650
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

>220

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$22,946
N/A
N/A
$11,965
Settled
No
kalshi

200-220

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$21,305
N/A
N/A
$14,182
Settled
No
kalshi

160-179

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,116
N/A
N/A
$14,394
Settled
No
polymarket

160-179

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,924
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

180-199

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$19,944
N/A
N/A
$12,102
Settled
No
polymarket

180-199

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,292
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

<80

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,218
N/A
N/A
$7,177
Settled
No
polymarket

40-59

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,908
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

60-79

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,649
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,024
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20-39

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$520
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 20

Description

This event group measures the volume of Truth Social posts by Donald Trump during a specific week in June-July 2026. Polymarket offers granular bracket markets (0-19, 20-39, 40-59, etc. posts), while Kalshi uses a binary yes/no structure covering the same ranges. Both platforms track main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts, excluding replies unless they appear on the main feed.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Time window mismatch between platforms (Polymarket: June 30-July 7 vs. Kalshi: June 28-July 4) creates non-overlapping measurement periods and incompatible settlement logic. Both platforms measure the same post types but over different date ranges.Hero tip: Treat these as two separate markets with different measurement windows. A single post count will not resolve both platforms identically. Focus on the overlap period (June 30 - July 4) to understand which markets are most likely to settle Yes or No. If post volume is concentrated outside the overlap, one platform may settle differently than the other.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Bracket-based markets (13 mutually exclusive ranges from 0-19 to 200+) measuring June 30, 12:00 PM ET to July 7, 12:00 PM ET. Resolution via xtracker.polymarket.com Post Counter (primary) or Truth Social (secondary). Counts main feed posts, quote posts, reposts; excludes replies unless on main feed; deleted posts count if captured within ~5 minutes.
  • Kalshi: Binary yes/no markets (9 overlapping ranges) measuring June 28 to July 4, 2026. Each range resolves Yes if post count falls within that band. Same post type rules as Polymarket but covers a 7-day window instead of 8 days, with a 2-day earlier start date.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between June 30, 12:00 PM ET and July 7, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the total count of Truth Social posts by Donald Trump published between 12:00 AM ET on June 28, 2026 and 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026, recorded at 10:00 AM ET on July 5, 2026. The count includes Truths, ReTruths, and Quote Truths, with Replies included only if captured by Roll Call. Posts deleted by the expiration time are excluded. The primary resolution source is Roll Call; alternative sources may be used at Kalshi's discretion if Roll Call data is unavailable or inaccurate. The observation period is inclusive of both the lower and upper bounds.