TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Donald Trump # Truth Social posts July 31 - August 7, 2026?
kalshi
polymarket

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts July 31 - August 7, 2026?

Volume:
$700,709

200-219

 - Kalshi

200-219 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 7, 2026

Closed: Aug 2, 9:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

200-219

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$77,789
N/A
N/A
$31,323
Settled
Yes
polymarket

200+

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$16,665
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

160-179

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$115,761
N/A
N/A
$37,927
Settled
No
polymarket

160-179

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,874
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

180-199

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$97,379
N/A
N/A
$43,895
Settled
No
polymarket

180-199

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,631
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

>240

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$88,454
N/A
N/A
$31,303
Settled
No
kalshi

220-240

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$71,013
N/A
N/A
$31,037
Settled
No
kalshi

140-159

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$65,778
N/A
N/A
$38,388
Settled
No
polymarket

140-159

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,967
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

120-139

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$39,248
N/A
N/A
$22,604
Settled
No
polymarket

120-139

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,820
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

100-119

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$33,227
N/A
N/A
$20,066
Settled
No
polymarket

100-119

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,212
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

80-99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,173
N/A
N/A
$13,677
Settled
No
polymarket

80-99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,998
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

<80

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,425
N/A
N/A
$10,305
Settled
No
polymarket

40-59

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,196
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

60-79

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,146
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,380
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20-39

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$573
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 21

Intro

This market tracks whether Donald Trump will post 200 or more Truth Social posts between July 31 and August 7, 2026. The aggregated consensus probability for the leading outcome is 98.4%, with a secondary outcome probability of 1.1%. Data is aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket, with resolution sourced from https://xtracker.polymarket.com, supported by Truth Social. Watch for the end of the posting window on August 7, 2026, to confirm the final post count.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use the same time window (July 31 to August 7, 2026) and the same post type definitions (main feed, quote posts, reposts), with replies only counted if they appear on the main feed. Deleted posts are counted if captured within ~5 minutes.Primary resolution logic: https://xtracker.polymarket.com (with Truth Social as secondary source)

Core resolution logic:

  • Count all main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts made by Donald Trump on Truth Social from July 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET to August 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET
  • Exclude replies unless they appear on the main feed
  • Include deleted posts if they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes)

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Replies on Main Feed: Replies that appear on the main feed are counted, but standard replies in comment sections are not counted
  • Deleted Posts: Deleted posts count only if they are captured by the tracker within approximately 5 minutes of being posted
Timing: Resolution occurs after August 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, once the post count can be verified from the official sourceOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between July 31, 12:00 PM ET and August 7, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the number of Truth Social posts by Donald Trump from July 26, 2026, to August 1, 2026. The observation period runs from 12:00 AM ET on July 26, 2026, to 11:59 PM ET on August 1, 2026, with the count recorded at 10:00 AM ET on August 2, 2026. Roll Call is the primary source, with alternatives used if necessary. Truths, ReTruths, Quote Truths, and Replies (if captured) are included, while deleted posts are excluded. Each market corresponds to a specific range of post counts, resolving to Yes if the total falls within that range.

Frequently asked questions

The Trump Truth Social post market dashboard aggregates activity from multiple venues, showing real-time odds and volume for predictions about Donald Trump’s social media activity. This view lets you see how traders across platforms price the likelihood of various post counts during the specified week. The dashboard updates continuously, reflecting the latest bets and consensus across the market, giving you a clear snapshot of trader sentiment toward the outcome of the Trump Truth Social post market.

News about Donald Trump’s schedule, unexpected platform outages, or major political events could shift expectations and move this market. Trader sentiment may also react to polling trends, media coverage volume, or announcements about Trump’s upcoming activities, all of which can influence bets on his likely posting frequency in the weeks ahead.