TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026?
polymarket
kalshi

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 7 - August 14, 2026?

Volume:
$578,572

220-240

 - Kalshi

220-240 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 14, 2026

Closed: Aug 9, 9:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

220-240

View
100%
70%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$70,627
N/A
N/A
$34,111
Settled
Yes
polymarket

180-199

View
100%
43%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$58,688
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

180-199

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$89,051
N/A
N/A
$26,558
Settled
No
kalshi

>240

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$61,139
N/A
N/A
$28,840
Settled
No
polymarket

200+

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,654
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

200-219

View
0%
59%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$59,068
N/A
N/A
$28,886
Settled
No
kalshi

160-179

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$39,282
N/A
N/A
$19,653
Settled
No
polymarket

160-179

View
0%
39%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37,288
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

100-119

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25,300
N/A
N/A
$10,713
Settled
No
polymarket

100-119

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,367
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

<80

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$24,267
N/A
N/A
$16,976
Settled
No
kalshi

140-159

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$21,610
N/A
N/A
$11,581
Settled
No
polymarket

140-159

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,886
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

120-139

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,495
N/A
N/A
$9,481
Settled
No
polymarket

120-139

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,406
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

80-99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,418
N/A
N/A
$13,756
Settled
No
polymarket

80-99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,149
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

60-79

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,673
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20-39

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,641
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40-59

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,203
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,361
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 21

Intro

This market tracks whether Donald Trump will post between 180 and 199 Truth Social posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026, with an aggregated consensus probability of 99.8%, led by Polymarket and Kalshi, resolving against https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump. The second outcome, posting 160 to 179 posts, holds a probability of 0.2%. Watch the end of the betting period on August 14, 2026, for resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The two platforms have different time windows and potentially different counting rules for replies.Hero tip: Verify the exact time windows and reply counting rules for each platform before trading, as these differences can lead to divergent outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Counts posts from August 7, 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Excludes replies unless they appear on the main feed. Uses https://xtracker.polymarket.com as the primary resolution source.
  • Kalshi: Counts posts from August 2, 2026 to August 8, 2026. No explicit mention of time or reply handling.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between August 7, 12:00 PM ET and August 14, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Kalshi

The event determines the resolution based on the total number of Truth Social posts made by Donald Trump between August 2, 2026, at 12:00 AM ET and August 8, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Each market corresponds to a specific post count range, with the lowest market resolving to Yes if posts are below 80 and the highest resolving to Yes if posts exceed 240. All markets share identical secondary rules: the observation window, data source (primarily Roll Call with alternatives at Kalshi's discretion), inclusion of Truths, ReTruths, and Quote Truths, limited reply inclusion, a recording time of 10:00 AM ET on August 9, 2026, and exclusion of deleted posts. The term “between” is inclusive of both bounds for each range.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Trump Truth Social activity market shows real-time data from multiple prediction venues, aggregating how traders price the likelihood of Donald Trump posting a specific number of messages on Truth Social between August 7 and August 14, 2026. You can see current probabilities, volume of $578,571, and 24-hour volume of $173,193 across platforms. This gives a consensus view of market expectations for Trump’s social media behavior over that week, updated live as new posts or market activity shift odds.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can vary due to differences in user bases, liquidity, and market design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one platform might attract more politically engaged traders who interpret news events differently, while the other could have a broader user pool less focused on minute policy details. Additionally, each venue has its own fee structure and order-book dynamics, which can lead to price discrepancies even when tracking the same underlying event.

News about Donald Trump’s schedule, major political announcements, or platform outages could shift expectations in this market. Any indication of planned activity — such as scheduled speeches, campaign events, or controversies — may cause traders to adjust their bets. Conversely, technical issues with Truth Social or periods of silence could also influence odds as participants reassess the likelihood of post volumes.