TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 4 - August 11, 2026?
polymarket
kalshi

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 4 - August 11, 2026?

Volume:
$65,534

180-199

 - Polymarket

180-199 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 11, 2026

Closed: Aug 11, 2:58 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

180-199

View
100%
50%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8,893
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

200+

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,756
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

160-179

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,124
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

80-99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,169
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40-59

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,285
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

100-119

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,201
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

140-159

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,188
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

60-79

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,462
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Yes

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,067
N/A
N/A
$931
Settled
No
polymarket

120-139

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,968
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$885
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20-39

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$536
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Description

This event group tracks the number of Truth Social posts made by Donald Trump between August 4 and August 11, 2026. The markets will resolve based on the actual post count within this timeframe, with specific ranges defined for each market outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Timing and scope divergence due to different date windows and potential ambiguity in Kalshi's timeframeHero tip: Focus on Polymarket for precise date window counting. For Kalshi, confirm the exact issuance timestamp to determine the effective start of the counting period. Be cautious of posts made just before or after the Polymarket window.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Counts posts from August 4, 12:00 PM ET to August 11, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Includes main feed, quote posts, and reposts, but excludes replies. Uses https://xtracker.polymarket.com as the primary source.
  • Kalshi: Counts posts made after issuance and before September 2026, including posts, quote posts, and reposts (not including replies). The exact start time depends on the issuance timestamp, creating potential ambiguity.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between August 4, 12:00 PM ET and August 11, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Kalshi

If realDonaldTrump posts, quote posts, and reposts on X above 0 times (not including replies) from after Issuance and before Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Trump Truth Social activity market aggregates predictions across multiple venues, showing how traders price the likelihood of Donald Trump posting a specific number of posts on Truth Social during the week of August 4–11, 2026. It displays current odds, volume of $65,534, and 24-hour volume of $15,011, offering a consensus view of expectations from Polymarket and Kalshi.

Several signals could shift this market before it closes. Major news events, Trump’s public statements, or changes in his posting habits may influence trader sentiment. Additionally, platform-specific volume spikes on Polymarket or Kalshi can cause price swings, as can any perceived shifts in political engagement or media attention surrounding the former president’s online activity in the weeks leading up to August.