TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026?
polymarket
kalshi

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 11 - August 18, 2026?

Volume:
$98,055

200+

 - Polymarket

200+ - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 18, 2026

Closed: Aug 18, 6:02 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

200+

View
100%
41%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$16,659
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

140-159

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,140
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

160-179

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,902
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

180-199

View
0%
36%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,325
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

1-2 AM

View
0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,002
N/A
N/A
$4,073
Settled
No
polymarket

<20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,538
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

80-99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,490
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

100-119

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,935
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4-5 AM

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,819
N/A
N/A
$2,351
Settled
No
kalshi

3-4 AM

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,131
N/A
N/A
$2,004
Settled
No
kalshi

2-3 AM

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,093
N/A
N/A
$2,680
Settled
No
polymarket

120-139

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,788
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20-39

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,024
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

60-79

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,957
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

5-6 AM

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,750
N/A
N/A
$1,127
Settled
No
polymarket

40-59

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,503
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 16

Description

This event group tracks Donald Trump's Truth Social activity between August 11 and August 18, 2026. It includes multiple markets across Polymarket and Kalshi, each with different criteria for resolution based on the number of posts or specific posting times.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets use fundamentally different resolution criteria: Polymarket is based on total post count ranges over August 11-18, 2026, while Kalshi triggers based on any posts during specific overnight hours between August 9-15, 2026.Hero tip: Avoid cross-platform arbitrage between these markets as they resolve on entirely different criteria. Focus trading decisions on which specific market aligns with your view of Trump's posting behavior.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on total post count ranges (0-19, 20-39, ..., 200+) between August 11, 12:00 PM ET and August 18, 2026, 12:00 PM ET using the Post Counter at https://xtracker.polymarket.com.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if any posts occur during 1:00 AM to 5:59 AM ET on any day from August 9 to August 15, 2026, otherwise No.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between August 11, 12:00 PM ET and August 18, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether Donald Trump makes any posts on Truth Social during any of the five consecutive hourly intervals from 1:00 AM to 5:59 AM Eastern Time each night between August 9 and August 15, 2026. If at least one post occurs in any of these intervals—regardless of when it is posted within the hour—the event resolves positively. Deleted posts are counted the same as active ones, and each hourly window is strictly defined to include all moments from the start of the hour up to, but not including, the next hour. The resolution hinges solely on the presence of a post within any of the specified timeframes across the entire week.