TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 26, 5PM ET
Volume:
$6,466
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price moves up or down during a specific 1-hour candle ending at 5 PM ET on March 26, 2026. Polymarket uses Binance DOGE/USDT candle data (close vs. open comparison), while Kalshi references CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) with multiple price thresholds, creating a fundamental mismatch in both data source and resolution methodology.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use incompatible data sources (Binance spot candle vs. CF Benchmarks index), incompatible measurement windows (1-hour candle vs. 60-second average), and incompatible resolution logic (binary directional vs. multi-threshold level tests). Kalshi's resolution criteria also lack an explicit NO outcome, creating potential ambiguity.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge these markets. Polymarket resolves based on Binance DOGE/USDT candle close vs. open; Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks index thresholds. Even if Dogecoin moves up on Binance, Kalshi may not resolve YES if the CF index does not exceed its thresholds. Verify the CF Benchmarks index value independently before settlement. Kalshi's 36 conditions all resolve to YES; confirm whether a NO outcome exists or if the market defaults to NO if all thresholds are missed.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional market. Resolves UP if Binance DOGE/USDT 1-hour candle close price >= open price at 5 PM ET on March 26, 2026. Resolves DOWN otherwise. Single, clear resolution source: Binance spot pair. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: Multi-threshold index-level market. Contains 36 separate YES conditions, each testing if a 60-second average of CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific price threshold (0.0049999 to 0.1849999). No explicit NO outcome defined. All conditions are YES-only; resolution to NO is not documented. Key Quote: 'If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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