TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Volume:
$3,440
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price will be higher at the end of a 4-hour window (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET on March 25) compared to its price at the start. Polymarket uses Chainlink's DOGE/USD oracle, while Kalshi references CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) at a single checkpoint (5:00 PM EDT).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two distinct resolution methodologies: Polymarket measures intraday price movement (4 PM to 8 PM ET) using Chainlink, while Kalshi resolves at a single checkpoint (5 PM EDT) using CF Benchmarks with 37 independent price-level thresholds.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets with different risk profiles. Polymarket is a volatility/direction play; Kalshi's 37 markets are price-level binary bets. Chainlink and CF Benchmarks may diverge slightly. Kalshi's 5 PM resolution is 3 hours before Polymarket's window closes, so late-window price action affects only Polymarket.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Directional price-change market over 4-hour window. Resolves Up if Chainlink DOGE/USD at 8:00 PM ET >= price at 4:00 PM ET; otherwise Down. Single binary outcome. Source: Chainlink DOGE/USD data stream.
- Kalshi: 37 independent price-level markets. Each resolves Yes if 60-second average of CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI before 5:00 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (ranging 0.0049999 to 0.1849999). All thresholds resolve identically to Yes/No based on single price check at 5 PM EDT.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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