TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 22, 5PM ET
Volume:
$1,478
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price moves up or down during a specific 1-hour candle ending at 5 PM ET on March 22, 2026. Polymarket uses Binance DOGE/USDT spot price (open vs. close comparison), while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) with multiple price thresholds.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different data sources (Binance DOGE/USDT spot vs. CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI index) and different resolution logic (directional candle comparison vs. absolute price thresholds). This creates basis risk and potential for conflicting outcomes even if both markets are technically resolved correctly according to their own rules.Hero Tip:
Treat these as two separate markets with different underlying assets and mechanics. Polymarket is a directional bet (up or down from open); Kalshi is a series of level-based bets (is index above X?). Monitor Binance DOGE/USDT 1H candle data and CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI separately. A Polymarket "Up" outcome does not guarantee a Kalshi "Yes" outcome, and vice versa.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional resolution: "Up" if Binance DOGE/USDT 1H candle close >= open; "Down" otherwise. Uses spot exchange data from Binance. Resolution depends on intracandle price movement, not absolute level.
- Kalshi: Level-based resolution: "Yes" if CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI 60-second average before 5 PM EDT exceeds any of 37 thresholds (0.0049999 to 0.1849999). All thresholds are redundant—any price above 0.005 triggers all 37 conditions. Uses index data, not spot exchange.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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