TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price will be up or down at 5 PM ET on March 20, 2026. Polymarket uses Binance DOGE/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) with a 60-second average. Both platforms measure price movement at the same moment but via different data sources and methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different data sources (Binance exchange candle vs. CF Benchmarks index) and measurement logic (relative price comparison vs. absolute threshold levels). Both measure at the same timestamp but will produce independent outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not assume correlated outcomes across platforms. Polymarket's binary Up/Down is independent of Kalshi's threshold-based Yes/No conditions. Monitor both data feeds separately and hedge accordingly if holding positions on both platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Binary Up/Down based on Binance DOGE/USDT 1-hour candle: resolves Up if close price >= open price for the 1H candle beginning at 5 PM ET on March 20, 2026. Uses live Binance candlestick data finalized after the candle closes. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'Kalshi:
40 separate Yes/No conditions based on CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) 60-second average. Each condition resolves Yes if the index average before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from 0.0049999 to 0.2099999). Uses third-party benchmark index data, not direct exchange prices. Key Quote: 'If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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