TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 18, 5PM ET
Volume:
$3,326
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price moves up or down during a specific 1-hour window on March 18, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance DOGE/USDT candle data (close vs open), while Kalshi references CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index with multiple price thresholds. The core question is identical across platforms, but the resolution sources and methodologies differ significantly.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use incompatible resolution sources (Binance DOGE/USDT vs CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI) and incompatible logic structures (binary directional vs multi-threshold cascade). Kalshi's 39 conditions all map to Yes with no explicit No condition, making it logically incomplete and potentially unresolvable as a true up/down market.Hero Tip:
Treat these as two separate markets. Polymarket is a clean directional bet on Binance spot price. Kalshi's structure suggests it may be a series of price-level markets, not a directional bet. Before trading, verify Kalshi's actual No condition and confirm CF Benchmarks data availability at 5 PM EDT on March 18, 2026. Price divergence between Binance and CF Benchmarks could cause cross-platform resolution mismatches.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional resolution: Up if DOGE/USDT close >= open on Binance 1H candle; otherwise Down. Single, authoritative source (Binance spot price). Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: Threshold cascade: 39 conditions, each resolving to Yes if CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI 60-second average exceeds a specific price level (0.0049999 to 0.1949999). No explicit No condition provided. Key Quote: 'If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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