TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Volume:
$1,836
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price increases or stays flat during a specific 4-hour window on March 17, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Polymarket uses Chainlink's DOGE/USD oracle as the settlement source, while Kalshi references CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) measured at 5:00 PM EDT. The two platforms employ fundamentally different data sources, measurement methodologies, and time windows.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi employ incompatible price sources (Chainlink DOGE/USD vs. CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI), different measurement windows (4-hour range vs. single 60-second snapshot at 5 PM EDT), and different resolution logic (binary price comparison vs. threshold-based index levels). These differences create material risk of conflicting outcomes.Hero Tip:
Treat these as two separate markets with independent settlement risk. Chainlink and CF Benchmarks may report materially different prices for DOGE/USD at the same time. Polymarket's binary UP/DOWN outcome depends on a 4-hour price movement; Kalshi's outcome depends on whether a 60-second RTI average exceeds one of 39 thresholds at exactly 5 PM EDT. Hedge or arbitrage only if you have high confidence in the relative accuracy of both feeds.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary price comparison across a 4-hour window (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Resolves UP if Chainlink DOGE/USD at 8:00 PM >= Chainlink DOGE/USD at 4:00 PM; otherwise DOWN. Single, deterministic outcome. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Dogecoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.'
- Kalshi: 39 separate YES/NO conditions, all measuring a 60-second average of CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI before 5:00 PM EDT on March 17, 2026. Each condition resolves YES if the RTI exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from 0.0049999 to 0.1949999). All conditions reference the same measurement point (5 PM EDT) but different thresholds. Key Quote: 'If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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